(Zero Hedge)—Bank reserves at The Fed rose considerably last week expanding The Fed’s balance sheet by the most since the SVB crisis last March – as usage of The Fed’s BTFP bank-bailout facility pushed to a new record high (amid increasing arbitrage flows).
But, after four straight weeks of inflows, seasonally-adjusted bank deposits saw $23.3BN outflows in the first week of 2024…
And, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits also saw an outflow (-$33.7BN) after five weeks in a row of inflows (NSA)…
Which means that while money-market funds hit a new record high, bank deposits did pull back a little (despite the drain in RRP filling the liquidity gap)…
Excluding foreign bank flows, domestic banks saw deposit outflows of just over $40BN (SA and NSA) – the first in 5 weeks…
Large banks dominated that deposit outflow (Large -$39.9BN, Small -$347MN)…
On the other side of the ledger, Large bank loan volumes tumbled (-$16.6BN) for the 5th week in row (small bank loan volume rose $4.3BN)…
The Fed’s reverse repo facility is draining fast (faster each week), getting closer and closer to zero…
…at which point reserves get yanked, which mean huge deposit flight.
And the embarrassing surge in usage of The Fed’s BTFP for free-money-arbitrage…
…will make it hard for The Fed to defend leaving the facility open after March when its “temporary” nature is supposed to expire.
“In justifying the generous terms of the original program, the Fed cited the ‘unusual and exigent’ market conditions facing the banking industry following last spring’s deposit runs,” Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall wrote in a note to clients.
“It would be difficult to defend a renewal in today’s more normal environment.”
Which means, as we pointed out earlier in the week, “March will be lit”…
March will be lit:
1. Reverse repo ends
2. BTFP expires
3. Fed cuts (allegedly)
4. QT ends (allegedly)— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 8, 2024
Because without the help of The Fed’s BTFP, the regional banking crisis is back bigly (red line), and large bank cash needs a home – green line – like picking up a small bank from the FDIC…
And now you know why The Fed will cut rates in March – no matter what jobs or inflation is doing.
Independent Journalism Is Dying
Ever since President Trump’s miraculous victory, we’ve heard an incessant drumbeat about how legacy media is dying. This is true. The people have awakened to the reality that they’re being lied to by the self-proclaimed “Arbiters of Truth” for the sake of political expediency, corporate self-protection, and globalist ambitions.
But even as independent journalism rises to fill the void left by legacy media, there is still a huge challenge. Those at the top of independent media like Joe Rogan, Dan Bongino, and Tucker Carlson are thriving and rightly so. They have earned their audience and the financial rewards that come from it. They’ve taken risks and worked hard to get to where they are.
For “the rest of us,” legacy media and their proxies are making it exceptionally difficult to survive, let alone thrive. They still have a stranglehold over the “fact checkers” who have a dramatic impact on readership and viewership. YouTube, Facebook, and Google still stifle us. The freer speech platforms like Rumble and 𝕏 can only reward so many of their popular content creators. For independent journalists on the outside looking in, our only recourse is to rely on affiliates and sponsors.
But even as it seems nearly impossible to make a living, there are blessings that should not be disregarded. By highlighting strong sponsors who share our America First worldview, we have been able to make lifelong connections and even a bit of revenue to help us along. This is why we enjoy symbiotic relationships with companies like MyPillow, Jase Medical, and Promised Grounds. We help them with our recommendations and they reward us with money when our audience buys from them.
The same can be said about our preparedness sponsor, Prepper All-Naturals. Their long-term storage beef has a 25-year shelf life and is made with one ingredient: All-American Beef.
Even our faith-driven precious metals sponsor helps us tremendously while also helping Americans protect their life’s savings. We are blessed to work with them.
Independent media is the future. In many ways, that future is already here. While the phrase, “the more the merrier,” does not apply to this business because there are still some bad actors in the independent media field, there are many great ones that do not get nearly enough attention. We hope to change that one content creator at a time.
Thank you and God Bless,
JD Rucker
