According to some of the world’s biggest bond managers from Fidelity International to Allianz Global Investors, the United States is heading for a “nasty” recession. They’re sticking to their forecasts for a downturn that is “inevitable” and advise hedging any bets on risk assets.
“Something akin to a credit crunch is what I’m most concerned about,” said Steve Ellis, global fixed-income chief investment officer at Fidelity International, which manages $663 billion of assets. Central banks’ continued tightening shows they’re “fighting last year’s battle,” he said according to a report by Fortune.
The damage from 10 straight interest rate increases has been done and the collapse of three U.S. lenders in March was just a taste of the bigger crisis to come as central banks stay hawkish until something else breaks. Just last week, Canada and Australia delivered surprise hikes, putting some pressure on the Federal Reserve to follow at an upcoming meeting as inflation remains persistently high.
Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, said that stocks, bonds, and corporate debt are mispricing the risks. He added that only inflation-rate swaps have the economic outlook right. The so-called one-year forward inflation rate is currently at 2.4%, or close to 2% when risk compensation for investors is factored out. That implies a “nasty recession” within the next six months, he said. “Our base case is for a moderate-to-deep recession — and potentially crises — as the unprecedented pace of global policy tightening seen over the last year starts to really bite,” Riddell said. He recommends being bullishly positioned in rates and bearishly positioned in risk assets like credit.
The “inevitable” recession is taking far longer to show up than many thought at the start of the year. It’s possible the economy may keep defying expectations too, as situations such as nonfarm payrolls surpassed all estimates and surged in May, surprisingly.
Another issue is that Americans are quickly becoming overleveraged. Credit-card balances, which hit $986 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, remained largely unchanged in the first quarter for the first time in more than twenty years. Normally they post a dip as people pay off their debts from the holiday season, according to Forbes.
“Consumers are stretched, so I’m not 100% sure that a soft landing is really realistic at this point,” said Patrick McDonough, a portfolio manager at PGIM. “The downside is becoming more and more likely, just because we’ve been propped up by consumers for so long.”
Article cross-posted from SHTF Plan.
For Emergency Preparedness, Don’t Forget the Meds
Being prepared is more than just a good idea—it’s essential. We stock up on non-perishable food, bottled water, flashlights, and first-aid supplies, but one critical aspect often gets overlooked: access to vital medications. What happens if pharmacies close, prescriptions can’t be filled, or you’re cut off from medical care during an emergency?
That’s where Jase Medical steps in, offering a reliable solution to ensure you and your family have the medications you need when it matters most.
Jase Medical specializes in emergency preparedness kits designed to provide peace of mind through physician-reviewed, prescription medications delivered right to your door. Their flagship product, the Jase Case, is a comprehensive emergency antibiotic and medication kit priced at $289.95.
This kit includes 10 essential medications—five life-saving antibiotics and five symptom relief meds—that can treat over 50 common infections and illnesses, from urinary tract infections and pneumonia to skin infections and traveler’s diarrhea. With 28 add-on options available, you can customize the kit to fit your specific needs, including a KidCase for children ages 2-11.
The process is straightforward and hassle-free. Simply visit Patriot.tv/meds, complete an online evaluation, and have your order reviewed by a board-certified physician. Once approved, the medications are shipped discreetly from a licensed pharmacy to your U.S. address (with plans for Canada shipping coming soon). Each kit comes with detailed Med Cards outlining symptoms, dosing, and usage, making it easy to administer even in high-stress situations. These medications are shelf-stable and designed for long-term storage, empowering you to handle medical emergencies without relying on external help.
For those on the move, Jase Medical also offers the Jase Go kit for $129.95, a compact travel med kit covering over 30 common conditions encountered during adventures or trips. And for ongoing needs, Jase Daily provides an extended supply of your prescribed chronic medications to safeguard against disruptions in supply chains or extreme weather events.
Don’t just take our word for it—thousands of satisfied customers have given Jase Medical a 4.9-star rating, praising its role in true preparedness. As radio host Glenn Beck warns, “The supply lines for antibiotics already are stressed to the max. Please have some antibiotics on hand… You can do it through Jase.”
Whether you’re prepping for a hurricane, a power outage, or simply the uncertainties of daily life, Jase Medical ensures you’re not caught off guard. Head to patriot.tv/meds today to customize and order your emergency kit—because when it comes to your health and safety, it’s better to be prepared than sorry.