Why are big banks suddenly rushing to shut down so many local branches all over the nation? As I have discussed in previous articles, U.S. banks are currently sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in unrealized losses. When financial institutions get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money and they start cutting costs. In addition to laying off workers, our banks have been cutting costs by permanently closing local branches. For example, between November 12th and November 18th, the sixth largest bank in the United States initiated filings to close 19 more local branches…
America’s sixth-largest bank, PNC, has confirmed the closure of 19 more branches nationwide, following a staggering 203 branch closures earlier this year. This decision, aligning with the bank’s shift towards digital banking, is raising concerns among customers who prefer traditional banking methods.
Scheduled for February 2024, the closures will primarily impact Pennsylvania, where the majority of branches marked for closure are located. However, several branches in other states, including Illinois, Texas, Alabama, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana, will also be shutting their doors, leaving customers in these regions with limited access to in-person banking services, The Sun reported.
Of course PNC has lots of company.
During that exact same week, several other prominent banks made similar moves…
JPMorgan Chase followed closely with 18 filings—three in Ohio, two each in Connecticut and South Carolina, and one each in 11 states, including New York, Illinois, Florida, and Massachusetts.
Citizens Bank came in third with eight branch closure filings—six in New York, and one each in Massachusetts and Delaware. Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank filed for seven closures—three in Tennessee and one each in Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Illinois.
Bank of America made five filings—two in New York and one each in Texas, Massachusetts, and California.
Citibank filed for two branch closures, and Sterling, Bremer, First National Bank of Hughes Springs, Windsor FS&LA, and Aroostook County FS&LA made one filing each.
Altogether, banks filed to shut down 64 branches.
Read that last sentence again.
In just one week, U.S. banks decided to shut down a total of 64 branches. That is stunning.
What we are witnessing right now is a tsunami of branch closures.
Unfortunately, even more trouble is coming for our banks because the real estate industry is a total mess right now.
Existing home sales have fallen to depressingly low levels, and we just learned that new home sales in the U.S. dropped 5.6 percent last month…
New home sales in the United States fell in October as typical mortgage rates reached their highest levels this year.
Sales of newly constructed homes fell 5.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000, from a revised rate of 719,000 in September, according to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau.
Prices for new homes are falling as well…
So the median price of new single-family houses sold in October fell by 3.1% from September, to $409,300 (red line), the lowest since August 2021, down by 17.6% from a year ago, which had been the peak, according to data from the Census Bureau today. The three-month moving average is down by nearly 12% from its peak in December last year (green).
These are contract prices and do not include the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives such as free upgrades. But they do reflect the lower price points due to smaller footprints and the “de-amenitizing.”
Meanwhile, the commercial real estate crisis just continues to intensify.
Just check out these new numbers that were released several days ago by Trepp…
The volume of CMBS loans that are classified as delinquent increased by 49.4% during the 10 months through October to $27.91 billion. That volume amounts to 5.07% of the $601.98 billion universe tracked by Trepp. In contrast, delinquencies at the end of last year amounted to 3.03% of the $616.15 billion universe then extant.
Wow.
It turns out that office buildings are the primary reason why delinquencies are rising at such an astounding pace…
The driver of the increase was the office sector, which had a 261% increase in delinquency volumes over the 10-month period through October. A total of 199 loans with a balance of $9.59 billion, or 5.91% of all CMBS office loans were at least 30 days late with their payments, as of the end of October. At the end of last year, 115 loans with a balance of $2.65 billion, or 1.63% of office loans, were delinquent.
The sector’s prospects are unlikely to improve as office occupancy rates have declined in most of the country’s major markets. That’s been driven by a substantial pullback in demand from office-using tenants.
All of this reminds me so much of what we witnessed in 2008.
When the real estate industry falls on hard times, a financial crisis is usually right around the corner. Needless to say, it isn’t just U.S. banks that are in trouble right now.
Major banks all over the globe are getting hit really hard, and that includes Metro Bank in the UK…
Metro Bank shareholders have backed a multi-million pound rescue deal aimed at securing the bank’s future.
The vote was on a package the bank agreed last month to raise extra funds from investors and refinance debt. Metro’s share price had plunged in September following reports it needed to raise cash to shore up its finances.
In the days ahead, we are going to hear about a lot more banks that need to “shore up” their finances. And it is inevitable that more banks will fail.
A number of people have asked me questions about their banks lately, and I have told them the same thing that I tell everyone. It is never wise to put all of your eggs in one basket.
We are moving into a period of time that is going to be extremely chaotic, and so you don’t want to have all of your assets in a single place.
What we have seen so far is just the beginning. Our banks are going to get into even deeper trouble during the days ahead, and that is really bad news for all of us.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.