(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Okay, so they want us to believe that the U.S. economy grew at a very brisk pace during the fourth quarter of 2023 even though mass layoffs are happening all over America, sales of previously owned homes are at the lowest level in 28 years, homelessness is rising at the fastest pace ever recorded, and survey after survey is showing that most Americans are just barely scraping by from month to month. Needless to say, something does not add up. The American people are deeply frustrated with how the economy is performing, but the government keeps giving us numbers that indicate that everything is just great. On Thursday, we were told that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annualized rate during the fourth quarter of 2023…
The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected while inflation eased in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.
That compared with the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year.
If that number actually reflected reality, it would be very good news.
But how is it possible that layoffs were up 98 percent in 2023 while the U.S. economy was supposedly “growing” all year long?
To me, it appears that something fishy is going on.
And that is precisely what we see when we take a deeper look at the numbers. According to Zero Hedge, “GDP-boosting gimmicks” are being employed to make things look better than they actually are…
Turning to the all important consumption, we can’t help but smile when noticing that the BEA is again resorting to such favorite GDP-boosting gimmicks of the old Obama administration as spending on healthcare and… RVs! The two contributed to roughly half the growth in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Other numbers that don’t come from the Biden administration tell a much different story.
For example, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index was negative in December, and it has been negative for 8 of the past 12 months…
Against expectations of a small rise from 0.03 to 0.06, The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (which draws on 85 economic indicators) tumbled to -0.15 in December. 2023 ends with 8 of the 12 months in negative territory…
So how in the world can the economy be “growing” if national economic activity was in negative territory for two-thirds of last year?
It doesn’t make any sense at all.
And if the outlook for the future is positive, why are so many mass layoffs happening?
Business Insider had already conducted one round of mass layoffs, but they just decided that another round has become necessary…
In the latest wave of layoffs to hit the digital media biz, Business Insider said it will cut 8% of its staff in a restructuring aimed at positioning the company for growth.
Business Insider CEO Barbara Peng announced the job cuts in a memo to staffers Thursday. “We have already begun to refocus teams and invest in areas that drive outsize value for our core audience. Unfortunately, this also means we need to scale back in some areas of our organization,” she wrote.
Back when it first started, Business Insider was actually quite good. But those days are long gone. Microsoft is another big name that is putting large numbers of workers on the chopping block…
Microsoft will lay off 1,900 employees at Activision Blizzard and Xbox, the latest tech company to announce cuts so far in 2024.
The layoffs represent about an 8% cut of its video gaming staff of 22,000 workers and come months after Microsoft acquired Activision in a blockbuster deal. The $69 billion transaction in October represented one of the largest tech deals in history as Microsoft took over the studios behind bestselling games like Call of Duty, Diablo and Overwatch for its Xbox console.
And even though things are looking up for IBM these days, they are planning job cuts too…
IBM also said it will also cut a percentage of positions in the low single digits in 2024.
The planned job cuts follow similar announcements in January by major tech companies, including Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com.
Chief financial officer James Kavanaugh said IBM will likely spend the same amount on restructuring as it did in 2023 – US$400 million – when it reduced its workforce by about 3,900 jobs.
Day after day, I share examples of very large companies that are conducting mass layoffs.
Why would they be doing this if tremendous prosperity is ahead of us? It wouldn’t make any sense at all.
Of course the truth is that an economic downturn has already begun and it is going to get even deeper in 2024.
Those on the bottom of the economic food chain are being hit the hardest. Earlier today, I was saddened to read about homeless people in California that are being evicted from caves that they had dug into the banks of a river…
Rough sleepers in California were found living inside furnished caves dug into the banks of a river 20 feet below street level.
The groups were removed from the eight caves – along the Tuolumne River in Modesto – over the weekend, and they were emptied of belongings, furniture and 7,600 lbs of rubbish, filling two trucks and a trailer.
Some of the caves were decorated with murals, had broken floor tiles and one even had a makeshift fireplace with a chimney.
There are countless others just like them all over the country.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that homelessness was rising at the fastest pace ever recorded in 2023. But don’t worry about any of that.
According to Joe Biden and his minions, the U.S. economy is growing steadily and everything is just great. You believe them, don’t you?
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.