(The Economic Collapse Blog)—The U.S. cannot afford a war with China. The size of our military has been shrinking, and our resources are stretched way too thin. Today, the U.S. has military bases in 80 different countries, and we have troops stationed in 178 different countries. That is insane.
No empire in the entire history of humanity has had forces spread all over the planet like this. Our ammunition levels are extremely low due to major conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and every war game that our leaders have conducted has shown us losing a war to protect Taiwan. So we should be trying to avoid sparking a war with China, because we are holding a losing hand.
But our politicians seem determined to provoke one anyway. It is being reported that officials in Taiwan have confirmed that U.S. forces are now permanently stationed “on its islands in the Taiwan Strait”…
Taiwan has officially confirmed the presence of US troops stationed on its islands in the Taiwan Strait permanently, a development that could further escalate mounting tensions with China.
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed in 2023 facilitated the deployment of these troops to conduct training programs for Taiwanese frontline forces.
This is going to make Chinese authorities extremely mad.
It would have been bad enough if we had just put troops on Taiwan’s main island.
But we didn’t stop there.
We are being told that U.S. troops have also been stationed on the Penghu islands and the Kinmen islands…
According to reports from Taiwan’s United Daily News (UDN), US Army Green Berets from the 1st Special Forces Group are now permanently stationed at bases of the 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion, a Taiwanese army special operations force, located in outlying island counties of Penghu and Kinmen. Notably, Kinmen lies just over a mile from Chinese shores.
Additionally, reports suggest an American military presence in the northeast city of Taoyuan on Taiwan’s main island, with service members providing specialized training on drone equipment for Taiwan’s elite Airborne Special Service Company.
How would we feel if Chinese troops were one mile from the U.S. border?
Taiwan’s main island is approximately 100 miles from China, but in some places the Kinmen islands and China are “barely more than a mile apart”…
The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan also administers a number of smaller islands known as the Kinmen archipelago, or Kinmen County. Great Kinmen Island and its neighbor islets are on the other side of the strait, in a harbor just east of the port city of Xiamen, practically surrounded by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—in some places barely more than a mile apart.
What are our leaders thinking?
This doesn’t make war less likely.
It makes war more likely.
On Wednesday, China sent 32 warplanes toward Taiwan in a 24 hour period…
Thirty-two Chinese warplanes were detected over Taiwan in just 24 hours, the country’s defense ministry said.
In the 24 hours between Wednesday 6am and Thursday 6am local time, the second highest number of Chinese planes this year buzzed over the island nation accompanied by five naval vessels around Taiwan.
Twenty of the aircraft ‘crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait’, the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement on Thursday. The aircraft were detected after nightfall and included fighter jets, unmanned drones and medium-range transport aircraft, according to the ministry.
The Chinese do this sort of thing when they are upset.
And right now they are very, very upset.
And China has been feverishly preparing for the coming war…
China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a top US admiral testified.
Despite Beijing’s economic challenges, its official defense budget has increased by 16% over recent years to more than $223 billion, Admiral John Aquilino, the leader of the Indo-Pacific Command, told the US House Armed Services Committee in prepared testimony on Wednesday.
In the three years since he took command, he said the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, has added more than 400 fighter aircraft, along with more than 20 major warships. It’s also doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles since 2020, he said.
When war with China finally erupts, will we be able to handle it?
Of course not.
Our forces are scattered all over the planet, and so many of our resources have already been poured into the war in Ukraine.
Even though there have been efforts to ramp up ammunition production in the U.S., it is being reported that “Russia is producing nearly three times as many artillery munitions as the United States and Europe combined”…
Russia’s defence minister said on Thursday that artillery shell production had risen by nearly 2.5 times in the past year, while artillery component production had soared by a factor of 22 as Moscow races to rearm faster than the West can supply Ukraine.
Russia’s current dominance in artillery production is a factor that could help decide the course of the Ukraine war – which is largely fought with artillery and drones – at a time when the West fears Russia is set for more battlefield wins.
CNN reported earlier this month that Russia is producing nearly three times as many artillery munitions as the United States and Europe combined, citing unidentified Western intelligence sources.
No matter how you feel about the war, that is just embarrassing.
One of the reasons why we won World War II was because the U.S. could simply outproduce everyone else by a wide margin.
But now we just look pathetic.
French President Emmanuel Macron and other western leaders have suggested that NATO troops should be sent into Ukraine if that is what is necessary to keep the Russians from winning.
If that actually happens, U.S. boys and girls will inevitably be sent to die in the trenches of eastern Ukraine too.
In anticipation of a wider war, the Russians are conducting another round of mobilization.
In fact, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has just announced “the creation of 2 new ground armies, with 16 new brigades & 14 new divisions”.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials continue to insist that a major ground operation will happen in Rafah no matter what the Biden administration thinks about such a move…
On Thursday Israel issued its most defiant response yet to Washington pressre that it abandon its plans for a ground invasion of Rafah, over fears of another mass civilian casualty humanitarian disaster, given the high number of refugees packed into the southern Gaza city.
A top Israeli official was quoted in Bloomberg as saying the military is going to invade Rafah and defeat Hamas “even if the entire world turns on Israel, including the United States.” Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, issued the words in a podcast interview.
“We are going to go in and finish this job, and anybody who doesn’t understand that doesn’t understand that the existential nerve of the Jews was touched” by the Oct. 7 terror attack, he said.
When the IDF goes into Rafah, that could cause the entire region to erupt.
And so U.S. forces may be called on to intervene in the Middle East as well.
Spreading your resources way too thin is a sure way to lose.
Unfortunately, our politicians don’t seem to understand this, and their very foolish decisions will soon lead to absolutely disastrous consequences.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
China has troops in Cuba and Canada
and in the good ol US of A
China has troops inside the USA now…wakeup!!!
More coming in everyday.
Exactly what they’re trying to do in Ukraine.