(The Economic Collapse Blog)—The Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If the Fed pushes rates higher, interest payments on our 34 trillion dollar national debt could spin wildly out of control and bank balance sheets will be in even worse condition than they are now. First Republic just bit the dust, and literally thousands of other small and mid-size banks and in serious jeopardy. So it would be suicidal to hike rates at this point. But if the Fed were to reduce rates, that would be like injecting jet fuel into a raging fire. Our ongoing inflation crisis is absolutely crushing working families, and the rising cost of living has risen to the top of the list of things that U.S. voters are concerned about. The Fed seems very hesitant to cut rates, because that would make inflation even worse. So at this point the Fed is essentially caught in a “deer in the headlights” moment because it doesn’t know which way to go.
But staying on the path that we are currently on is only going to end in disaster.
Mark Spitznagel, the chief investment officer of Universa Investments, recently warned that he believes that the “worst market crash since 1929” is ahead of us…
One of Wall Street’s most bearish skeptics told Business Insider last month that he thinks the “worst market crash since 1929” is coming.
For years, our leaders have been “kicking the can down the road”, but according to Spitznagel all of that intervention has set the stage for an absolutely epic collapse…
In an interview with New York Magazine’s Intelligencer last year, Spitznagel likened the Fed’s “constant monetary intervention” to forest fire suppression.
He went on to say “when you suppress it enough, it gets to a point where you can no longer afford to have any fires burn because they would be too big and too intense.”
That’s where the U.S. economy is at, according to the hedge fund manager.
If Spitznagel’s dire market predictions come true, you really don’t want to have all of your eggs in one basket — because that basket could easily go up in flames.
In the months ahead, we will want to keep a very close eye on our banks.
Our banks are the beating heart of our economic system, because without the banks we would not have a functioning economy.
The banks are where we get mortgages to buy homes, auto loans to buy vehicles, and credit cards to go on shopping sprees. Without the credit they provide, we would be in a world of hurt. Unfortunately, our banks are in very serious trouble right now.
Higher interest rates have blown a hole that is hundreds of billions of dollars wide in their balance sheets. And they are sitting on mountains of commercial real estate loans that are going bad because the value of commercial real estate has collapsed all over the nation.
One consulting firm that examined data from approximately 4,000 U.S. banks is warning that hundreds more banks could potentially fail during this crisis…
According to recent reports, hundreds of banks face the potential of failing just like Republic First Bancorp.
Consulting firm Klaros Group analyzed roughly 4,000 U.S. banks and found that the banks face a threat of losses due to “secular changes in social patterns accelerated by the COVID pandemic (such as work-from-home, which has materially impacted demand for office space) and to the impacts of higher interest rates and related inflation.”
“You could see some banks either fail or at least, you know, dip below their minimum capital requirements,” Christopher Wolfe, managing director and head of North American banks at Fitch Ratings told CNBC in an interview.
Meanwhile, we continue to get even more signs that the overall economy is really slowing down.
For example, we just learned that Rue21 is going to be shutting down all 543 of their stores…
Rue21 – the teen fashion chain that is a fixture in malls across America – is to shut all 543 US stores.
Customers will be able to pick up deals while the company clears its stock over the next four to six weeks – but then the 40-year-old chain will be gone forever. At its peak, it had 1,200 shops.
It is expected clearance items will start at 20 to 50 percent off then rise up to as much as 90 percent to clear stock that doesn’t initially sell.
All over America, stores are closing, businesses are fleeing our core urban areas, and once bustling office buildings are standing empty. At this stage, everyone should be able to see where all of this is heading.
The Chinese certainly understand the direction that things are moving. The following comes from an article entitled “China Is Buying Gold Like There’s No Tomorrow”…
“China is unquestionably driving the price of gold,” said Ross Norman, chief executive of MetalsDaily.com, a precious-metals information platform based in London. “The flow of gold to China has gone from solid to an absolute torrent.”
Gold consumption in the country rose 6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the China Gold Association. It came on the heels of a 9 percent increase last year.
Chinese consumers are voraciously buying gold because their own economy is crumbling and they can see what is happening to the global economy as a whole.
At the same time, China’s central bank is gobbling up gold at an unprecedented rate…
Another major buyer of gold in China is the country’s central bank. In March, the People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for a 17th straight month. Last year, the bank bought more gold than any other central bank in the world, adding more to its reserves than it had in nearly 50 years.
Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for more than a decade.
Traditionally, buying gold and other precious metals has been a way to preserve your assets if you think that a major crisis is coming.
And the truth is that a major crisis has already begun.
I have been warning my readers that 2024 would be a very important year, and that has definitely turned out to be the case.
Of course all of this is very bad news for Joe Biden.
He had been hoping that an improving economy would help his chances in November, but instead there has been a dramatic shift in the wrong direction just as we enter the most critical months of campaign season.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.