A fresh poll reveals stark divisions in New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, with democrat socialist Zohran Mamdani holding a commanding lead that could trigger an unprecedented population drain from the nation’s largest city.
The survey, conducted by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail between October 23 and 26 among 500 registered voters, places Mamdani at 45 percent support among decided voters. Trailing behind are former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent with 31 percent, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 22 percent, and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams scraping by with just 1 percent. Write-in candidates account for the remaining 1 percent. The margin of error stands at 4.4 percent.
Recent polls from other outlets echo this trend. A Quinnipiac University survey from late October shows Mamdani ahead by 10 points over Cuomo, with Sliwa further back. An Emerson College poll reports an even wider gap, with Mamdani leading Cuomo by 25 points. Marist Poll data from the same period gives him a 16-point advantage among likely voters. With the election set for November 4, early voting has already seen over 584,000 ballots cast, according to the New York City Board of Elections.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old state assemblyman aligned with figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has campaigned on sweeping changes including free bus fares, rent freezes, city-run grocery stores, and universal childcare up to age five—proposals estimated to cost billions annually. To fund them, he backs a 2 percent tax hike on incomes over $1 million and bumping the corporate tax rate from 7.25 percent to 11.5 percent.
In other words, he’s poised to make New York City the most communist-aligned city in America. This comes on the heels of recent polls showing over 60% of both Democrats and college students of any political affiliation are either supportive of or indifferent to socialism over capitalism. How did we get here?
The poll paints a grim picture of fallout if Mamdani prevails: 9 percent of respondents, or about 765,000 people in a city of 8.5 million, say they would definitely leave. That’s roughly the size of Seattle or Washington, D.C. Another 25 percent, equaling 2.12 million, would consider departing, leaving just 59 percent committed to staying.
Demographics show the sharpest reactions among certain groups. White New Yorkers (13 percent) and Asian New Yorkers (11 percent) are most likely to bolt outright. Republicans lead at 35 percent definite departures, followed by Cuomo supporters at 11 percent. By borough, Staten Island tops the list with 21 percent planning to exit and 54 percent mulling it over, while Manhattan sees lower but still notable figures at 6 percent definite and 20 percent considering.
Older residents aged 50-64 express the strongest intent to flee, with 12 percent definite and 33 percent open to it. High earners over $250,000—whose top 1 percent shoulder half the city’s income taxes—show 7 percent ready to go.
Voters not backing Mamdani describe a potential administration in dire terms: “disaster,” “hell,” “chaos,” “destroyed,” and “s***hole.” In contrast, his supporters envision an “affordable,” “improved,” “hopeful,” and “changed” city.
Pollster James Johnson notes: “Who knows if we can believe people when they say it, but the prospect of Mamdani is so scary to some that they are considering throwing in the Big Apple for new digs. Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters are the most likely to say they would pack up and leave. It is easy to see why: when asked how they would sum up Mamdani’s New York, they say it would be a “disaster”, “hell”, and – close your eyes younger readers – a “s***hole.””
Real estate agents report immediate ripples. Jay Batra, a New York realtor, says: “These people are not thrilled about the possibility of Mamdani winning. They don’t want to hear about Mamdani and the rent freeze he is proposing. Two weeks ago, I had a couple of buyers In the $3, $4 and $5million price point range – one I was selling a building to – who are no longer interested in buying.”
Business leaders and residents eye escapes to low-tax havens like Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas. Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, a Republican, welcomes the influx: “I’ve been working with business leaders who are already trying to anticipate this move by planning for an exodus to Boca Raton. I’ve seen strong enthusiasm. With the prospect of more taxes and likely rises in crime and other problems coming, they’re looking to come to our low tax, safe, vibrant business ecosystem.”
Singer adds: “This path is surprising and shocking. People, I think, have forgotten the vitality that New York had in the 1990s and how that was a response to the high crime and poor economy it suffered through the 70s and 80s. New York is about to repeat some of the lessons from history that many voters have forgotten or never knew.” He further states: “People are already preparing to leave before a Mamdani election. There’s less and less reason to stay there.”
Cuomo warns: Mamdani’s policies would “exacerbate the problem that we’re seeing now, which is flight from New York City by high-income earners…we have to stop the exodus.”
Expectations run high for deterioration under Mamdani: 47 percent predict worse crime and violence (versus 32 percent safer), 45 percent foresee heightened antisemitic tensions (21 percent better), 43 percent anticipate fewer businesses (23 percent more), and 39 percent expect increased terrorism risks (18 percent lower). On housing, 39 percent see more affordability, but 32 percent disagree.
Critics draw parallels to California’s woes, where similar tax policies have sparked revenue shortfalls and business flight. With New York’s tax base already strained, a Mamdani victory might accelerate a cycle of higher levies on fewer payers, crumbling infrastructure, and resurgent crime reminiscent of the 1980s.
As ballots loom, the poll signals a city on edge, where policy choices could reshape its future—or empty its streets.
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