(NOQ Report)—Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District turned out on a chilly December day to choose a successor to Rep. Mark Green, who stepped down in July after a decade in office. Republican Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate and Army National Guard colonel, emerged victorious over Democrat Aftyn Behn, a Nashville state representative. With about 85% of votes counted, Van Epps led with 52% to Behn’s 47%, a narrower margin than the district’s usual Republican blowouts but enough to keep the seat in GOP hands.
The district, which stretches from the suburbs west of Nashville through rural counties, has long been a Republican stronghold. President Trump won it by 22 points in 2024, and Green routinely pulled double-digit victories. Yet this special election felt different from the start. Democrats poured resources into the race, sensing an opening amid national headwinds for the GOP.
Behn’s campaign hammered affordability, echoing Democratic successes in off-year races in New Jersey and Virginia last month. But Van Epps countered with promises to cut costs and secure the border, framing himself as the steady hand to carry forward Green’s work.
Early voting gave Behn a clear edge, a pattern that’s frustrated Republicans in recent cycles. She banked support from urban Nashville voters worried about grocery prices and housing. Van Epps, though, surged on Election Day, dominating in the district’s conservative rural precincts. That split suggests GOP get-out-the-vote operations—bolstered by Trump’s tele-rallies and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s last-minute swing through Franklin—paid off just enough.
“A special election is an odd thing, anything can happen, so we take no vote for granted,” Johnson said at a rally the day before polls opened, noting how turnout often dips without the usual November fanfare.
The race wasn’t cheap. Super PACs aligned with Trump dumped over $1.7 million into ads boosting Van Epps, while Democrats matched them nearly dollar for dollar through their House majority PAC and Behn’s own committee. Total spending topped $6 million, turning airwaves into a battlefield.
Republicans zeroed in on Behn’s past statements, airing clips where she called herself “a very radical person” and voiced support for defunding the police. One Van Epps spot branded her a “radical disaster,” warning that her agenda meant higher taxes for working families. Democrats fired back, tying Van Epps to what they called Trump’s “toxic” policies, like efforts to roll back health coverage for thousands of Tennesseans.
Van Epps, who served as Tennessee’s commissioner of general services under Gov. Bill Lee, leaned hard into his military credentials and Trump’s backing. In an October interview, he laid out his pitch plainly: campaigning on “security, opportunity and prosperity” and vowing to “pick up the ball and run with it” on border security, a nod to Green’s time leading the House Homeland Security Committee.
Endorsements rolled in from Trump, Green, and state heavyweights like Rep. Diana Harshbarger, whose district neighbors the 7th. Harshbarger, a vocal Trump ally, joined the chorus urging conservatives to show up, especially after Trump’s recent pardon of her husband in a long-ago health care fraud case—a move that drew whispers of favoritism but solidified GOP loyalty in Tennessee.
For Behn, the loss stings in a district where Democrats have made inroads before. She’s built a profile as a progressive organizer, drawing comparisons to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and pulling in old Democrats like Kamala Harris and Al Gore to her events. Yet her old podcast remarks—saying she “hates this city” about Nashville, the very place she now represents—gave opponents endless ammo.
Republicans painted her opposition to releasing Jeffrey Epstein files as suspicious, especially after Trump signed the transparency bill into law on November 21. Was Behn shielding powerful interests, or just toeing a party line? The ads let voters decide, and they leaned toward doubt.
This result offers a mixed signal for Republicans heading into 2026. Holding a safe seat by single digits shows the party’s base remains fired up, but it also exposes cracks. Trump’s direct involvement—phoning into rallies and breaking a social media silence to rally the faithful—kept the race from slipping away. Still, with the House majority hanging by a thread, Speaker Johnson can’t afford many more nail-biters like this.
Van Epps, sworn in soon, has his eye on the Armed Services Committee, where his combat experience as a helicopter pilot could prove useful amid ongoing border and global tensions.
Tennessee’s 7th District delivered what it usually does: a win for the home team. But the close call serves as a reminder that even deep-red ground needs tending, especially when outside money and national narratives turn a quiet special into something bigger. Van Epps takes the oath knowing the work ahead—lowering costs, securing borders, and keeping faith with voters who braved the rain to cast their lot with him.
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