(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Officials had been greatly puzzled by a “mystery disease” that has been making dairy cattle in Texas, Kansas and New Mexico very sluggish and has been causing them to produce much less milk. So they decided to do some testing, and we now have the results. It turns out that the mystery illness is actually “the same strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that’s been in the U.S. for two years”…
A mystery illness that’s impacted dairy herds in the Texas Panhandle, New Mexico and Kansas now has a diagnosis: Influenza A. USDA says genetic sequencing revealed it’s the same strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that’s been in the U.S. for two years.
APHIS says the “National Veterinary Services Laboratories” detected Influenza “A” in samples from several impacted herds in Texas, Kansas and New Mexico. The virus is carried by wild waterfowl, which experts think is how the illness is spreading.
The experts did not think that bird flu would be a threat to dairy cattle.
Unfortunately, the experts were wrong.
Scientists were able to confirm the presence of the bird flu by testing samples of milk from sick cows…
According to USDA, as of March 25, unpasteurized, clinical samples of milk from sick cattle collected from two dairy farms in Kansas and one in Texas, as well as an oropharyngeal swab from another dairy in Texas, have tested positive for the virus.
Now that bird flu has been identified as the culprit, dairy farmers are being urged to strictly implement “all standard biosecurity measures”…
Officials are strongly advising dairy producers to use all standard biosecurity measures. They note it’s important for producers to clean and disinfect all livestock watering devices and isolate drinking water where it might be contaminated by waterfowl. Farmers are also being asked to notify their herd veterinarian if they suspect any cattle within their herd are displaying symptoms of this condition.
I was quite shocked to learn that this was happening right here in our own country.
The good news is that all milk from sick cows is being kept out of the food chain…
“Also, routine testing and well-established protocols for U.S. dairy will continue to ensure that only safe milk enters the food supply. In keeping with the federal Grade ‘A’ Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO), milk from sick cows must be collected separately and is not allowed to enter the food supply chain. This means affected dairy cows are segregated, as is normal practice with any animal health concern, and their milk does not enter the food supply. Consumers in the United States and around the world can remain confident in the safety and quality of U.S. dairy,” the statement said.
Will we eventually get to a point where entire herds of dairy cows have to be killed in order to prevent the spread of the disease? Let’s hope not.
Earlier this month, we learned that a goat in Minnesota has also tested positive for bird flu…
A goat in Stevens County, Minnesota, has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), becoming the first U.S. detection of HPAI in a domestic ruminant. The goat contracted the virus after a poultry flock on the same premises was depopulated in February due to the virus. Following the confirmation of HPAI in the goat, the Minnesota Board of Animal Health quarantined all other species on the premises. The Board said is working with USDA to investigate the transmission of the virus in this case.
It appears to be just a matter of time before the bird flu starts becoming a significant threat to humans as well.
According to Dr. Chris Walzer, “dozens of mammalian species” have already been infected…
In January, Dr Chris Walzer, the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Executive Director of Health, in a statement, said: “It (H5N1) has infected over 150 wild and domestic avian species around the globe as well as dozens of mammalian species. The bird flu outbreak is the worst globally and also in US history, with hundreds-of-millions of birds dead since it first turned up in domestic waterfowl in China in 1996.”
We better hope that the bird flu does not mutate into a form that can spread very easily among humans.
Because according to the NIH, bird flu can have a death rate of more than 50 percent in humans…
As of November 2022, 240 cases of human avian influenza A (H5N1) virus have been confirmed from the Western Pacific Region since 2003 with a case fatality rate of 56%.
A global bird flu crisis would be far worse than anything that we have experienced during the past several years.
Just try to imagine the panic that would ensue if H5N1 were to start killing millions of people around the world.
Hopefully that will not happen any time soon.
Earlier today, I did come across an article about a 21-year-old student in Vietnam that was just killed by H5N1…
A student in Vietnam has died of H5N1 bird flu, according to the country’s Department of Preventive Medicine.
The 21-year-old man developed symptoms of fever and a cough on March 11. A week later, he presented at Ninh Hoa Medical Center in Vietnam’s eastern Khanh Hoa province, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia and transferred to Khanh Hoa General Hospital.
The student tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza on March 20, and further tests conducted two days later at the Nha Trang Pasteur Institute showed the patient was infected with the H5N1 subtype.
Let us pray that this was just an isolated incident.
Meanwhile, other pestilences continue to spread all over the planet.
For example, dengue fever has become a major problem in Brazil, and now government officials in Puerto Rico have declared a dengue fever epidemic…
On Monday, government leaders in Puerto Rico declared a dengue epidemic after a spike in cases of the mosquito-borne disease hit the island.
From the start of the year through March 10, there were 549 cases, including 341 hospitalizations and 29 severe cases, according to the most recent data provide by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. Cases are concentrated in cities including San Juan, Bayamon, Guaynabo and Carolina.
I have been repeatedly warning my readers that global pestilences would be one of the major themes of the next several years.
Bird flu has already killed hundreds of millions of birds, and now it is spreading in mammals.
A widespread bird flu outbreak among humans would have the potential to be absolutely catastrophic, and so we will want to watch this story very, very closely.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.