JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told a financial conference in New York on Monday that people who assume that the U.S. economy will continue to boom for years on the back of consumer strength are making “a huge mistake.”
Mr. Dimon made the remarks at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Sept. 11, at which he warned of a number of risks to the economy, including the Ukraine war, monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and increasing reliance on government spending.
“To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake,” he said.
The booming economy narrative rose to prominence in recent months, driven by strong retail sales and wage growth, while recession fears have eased. But there are signs that the recent rise in consumer sentiment has been short-lived and that the economy is facing some headwinds.
Consumer Strength Weakening?
Consumer spending, which represents roughly 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, posted solid growth in July, the latest month of available data. However, economists widely expect the past year of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes to weigh more heavily on domestic demand.
The latest data on retail sales showed that Americans spent more than expected in July, splurging on hobbies, sporting goods, and clothing, prompting economists at Goldman Sachs to raise their third-quarter gross domestic product estimate by seven-tenths of a percentage point to a 2.2 percent annualized rate.
However, there are signs that the boom may not last as the latest consumer tracker for August from Deloitte says that financial well-being sentiment has stagnated, with the percentage of consumers worried about savings and postponing big purchases on the rise, while spending intentions “remain on a long-term downtrend.”
A separate barometer of consumer confidence from the Conference Board found that, after a sharp uptick in July, its gauge retreated to a reading “a hair above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year.”
While financial markets have, over the summer, largely dismissed recession fears, fresh data suggests that the country may be facing a “stagnation” point.
“A near-stalling of business activity in August raises doubts over the strength of U.S. economic growth in the third quarter,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report that showed new orders tumbling, input cost inflation rising, and the pace of job creation slowing.
Mr. Dimon’s remarks at Monday’s conference tapped into this sentiment, with the JPMorgan chief saying that the health of U.S. consumers and businesses was still “pretty good,” although he warned against being overconfident.
Key concerns that he mentioned were the twin factors of central bank efforts to roll back easy money policies—which have pushed inflation to multi-decade highs—and governments “spending like drunken sailors.”
“I think there’s a false sense of security that those two things will end up being OK. I don’t know,” he said.
Higher Capital Requirements
At the conference, Mr. Dimon also took aim at the higher capital requirements U.S. regulators have proposed for banks, warning that such measures could starve the economy of credit and amount to another hurdle to growth.
“I wouldn’t be a big buyer of a bank,” he said, drawing laughter from the audience, while calling the new proposal “hugely disappointing.”
Mr. Dimon, who heads America’s biggest lender, questioned what regulators were trying to accomplish by proposing the new rules, which would require bigger U.S. banks, with total assets of $100 billion or more, to set aside billions of dollars to bolster their ability to absorb losses when times get tough.
“All I want is fairness, transparency, openness,” Mr. Dimon said with regards to the regulatory proposal, which would require banks with total assets of $100 billion or more to maintain an additional 2 percentage points in capital above current levels.
The regulatory proposal has been roundly criticised by the banking industry, with Bank Policy Institute (BPI) President and CEO Greg Baer warning of “higher costs to consumers and greater instability for markets,” in a statement obtained by The Epoch Times.
Mr. Dimon said that the new regulatory proposal would require JPMorgan to hold 30 percent more in capital than a European lender, which he said was an unfair burden on U.S. banks.
In contrast to Mr. Dimon’s take on tougher bank capital rules, some U.S. regulators have said the proposal doesn’t go far enough.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari recently said he expects more government regulation of the banking sector in light of several high-profile bank failures.
Mr. Kashkari also said that he’d like to see the proposed capital requirement rules apply to smaller institutions with less than $100 billion in total assets, though he didn’t specify what threshold he had in mind.
At Monday’s conference, Mr. Dimon also said he believes that the Chinese market is no longer as attractive to foreign investors as it once was.
“In terms of our own business, the risk-reward [from China], which was very good, has now become okay. The risk is bad,” he said, adding that JPMorgan has become more cautious about managing its risk.
Caution has also entered the homebuyer market in the United States, with mortgage applications dropping last week to their lowest point since 1996.
Reuters contributed to this report. Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.