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Animal Farm

America’s Animal Farm

by J.B. Shurk
February 8, 2023

Ordinary people have extraordinary power.  Don’t believe me?  Watch what happens if tens of millions ever decide to close their bank accounts all at once.  Or critical sectors of the workforce decide to stay home for weeks.  Or a sizable percentage of the population refuses to obey arbitrary and capricious government orders.  When citizens become fed up enough to take matters into their own hands, those with government-bestowed titles learn quickly how little power those vaunted titles actually have.

If you were to ask a collection of random people what governments do, you would hear a multitude of answers: they make and enforce laws, collect taxes, regulate industry, police citizens, and mobilize militaries.  In actuality, what governments do, first and foremost, is prevent citizens from ever understanding the above paragraph.  Their first order of business is to convince the vast majority of people not in positions of authority to obey the cumulative will of the small minority in charge of the government.  For most of human history, this magic act, in which so few control so many, has been accomplished through intimidation, violence, and other forms of coercion.

“Nothing is so certain as death and taxes,” the old proverb goes, but it might just as accurately be said of almost all governments throughout history that those in charge will extract from those under their thumb either death or taxes — and often both.  Force is the only language most governments know, although that force is often disguised as being performed for the people’s “own good.”  As it turns out, force is generally sufficient for corralling humans into their government-controlled pens, especially if there are carrots or other treats inside to keep them content, if not particularly happy.  When those pens have nothing attractive to offer and become overrun with filth, however, then those doing the corralling must resort to more and more force in order to make their captives obey.

The rejection of this coercive paradigm formed the intellectual backbone of American independence.  Aside from some notable Greek city-states and a few mostly forgotten tribes, America’s Enlightenment experiment in self-determination set itself apart from all other past forms of governance precisely because its guiding principles sought to level the playing field between the governing and governed and replace the confines of the government’s animal pen with a shared freedom to roam.  “We the people,” the U.S. Constitution begins, before articulating common ideals uniting all Americans, including a determination to “secure the blessings of liberty” for “ourselves and our posterity.”  The people, as the architects of the American system of government, alone control the limits of their liberty and perpetually hold the keys to any artificial pen constricting their free will.

Now, depending upon your level of cynicism, this revolutionary articulation of human self-government either never truly succeeded or has achieved periods of relative success while enduring its share of failures, as all human institutions invariably do.  Putting America’s scorecard to the side, however, by far its most powerful contribution to human liberty has been the passing down from one generation to the next both a shared understanding of what freedom means and a shared commitment to pursuing American freedom doggedly, however incomplete.

America’s civic bonds have prevailed through challenging times by sustaining a common determination to preserve individual rights and to protect those rights from the treacherous dilutions of government decree.  The inviolable sanctity of the individual — the acknowledgment that each human has special worth that cannot be indiscriminately erased for some utopian and misguided “greater good” — provides the foundations for American equality.

In America, no person’s life, liberty, or property can be said to be more important than any other’s.  This has been the shared truth, even when Americans have failed to live up to the standard, keeping the people in charge of their own pen and government force in check, if not at bay.  Although President Truman will always be remembered for embracing the notion that “the buck stops here,” ultimately, the buck stops at all times with the American people.  They are, as William Ernest Henley would attest, alone the masters of their fates and the captains of their souls.  That’s the American way.

It is not the American way, however, for citizens to live higgledy-piggledy under the ambiguous reign of one government dictate to the next.  It is not American for an unelected bureaucracy to create rules out of thin air and enforce them upon the people through agency prerogative and regulation.  It is not American for presidents to legislate through executive order.

JD’s manually curated links for God-fearing MAGA patriots

It is not American for congresses to conduct show trials against American citizens or to demand that tech companies censor points of view.  It is not American for courts to scribble over the Constitution whenever expedient.  It is not American for the Department of (in)Justice to persecute citizens for their political beliefs or for the FBI to act as a lethal enforcer against the regime’s political enemies.

It is not American for there to be so many criminal statutes that no American could possibly know them all, let alone confidently act without fear of sanction.  It is not American for there to be so many government agencies and divisions that no American could capably draw a diagram listing their roles and functions.

It is not American for the government to champion its secular religion over the moral tenets of Americans’ spiritual faiths.  It is not American for the government to ignore the will of its citizens and subvert immigration law by leaving its borders unprotected and wide open.  It is not American for an amorphous Intelligence Community to spy on American citizens with neither warrant nor probable cause.  It is not American for the news media to be so co-opted by the State that they almost universally support the government’s talking points — no matter how ludicrous and unsupported — while taking aim at dissenting citizens’ debate.

It is not normal for a “government of the people” to regularly denigrate its citizens as racists, extremists, deplorables, terrorists, misogynists, bigots, and rubes.  It is not normal for any government claiming to be “for the people” to declare half the nation “enemies of the State.”

These are the acts of a government committed to using intimidation, violence, and other forms of coercion in order to get its way.  In short, they are everything the American system revolted against when American independence rejected top-down force for equality, individual liberty, unassailable rights, and freedom of thought beyond the reach of the government’s say.

That so many Americans still fail to see how distorted their acting government has become from what their Constitution affords is proof that those who corral humans into pens for a living have done their jobs exceptionally well.  Like too many generations before them, Americans have allowed themselves to be rounded up with a little prodding, some tasty carrots, and reassuring words along the way.  Too many look at the barbed wire surrounding them and assume that life must always be endured behind the government’s enclosure.  Obedience in exchange for the government’s promises of safety, welfare, and happiness has created a narcotic bliss.

What happens, though, if enough Americans decide they are not safe, comfortable, or happy?  What happens when the American government runs out of carrots, and those in cages realize they are surrounded by nothing but filth and decay?  Perhaps then ordinary people will realize what extraordinary power they actually possess.  Perhaps then sleeping Americans will reawaken.  Perhaps the descendants of those who once turned the world upside-down will remember how to reject government tyranny and demand a return to the American way.

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Two Storms, One Harvest

Empty Shelves

Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.

What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.

Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.

This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.

Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.

Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.

The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running

While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.

The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.

Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.

The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.

Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.

The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?

The System Has No Slack Left

The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.

Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.

There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.

The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.

What Joseph Knew

Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.

Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.

Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.

Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.

None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.

Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.

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