As the Federal Reserve continues its fastest rate hike cycle since the stagflation crisis of 1980, a couple vital questions linger in the minds of economists everywhere – When is recession going to strike and when will the Fed reverse course on tightening?
The answers to these queries are at the same time simple and complex: First, the recession has already arrived. Second, the Fed is NOT going to reverse course, though they will probably stop tightening for a time.
The technical definition of a recession in the US is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We already experienced that in 2022, which led the Biden White House and puppet economists within the mainstream media to change the definition. The Federal Reserve also ignored deflationary signals throughout the last year and evidence suggests the central bank along with the Biden Administration even tried to hide the downturn with false employment numbers.
For a few years I have predicted that the establishment would shift into a monetary tightening phase and they would continue with interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions until markets break and the system destabilizes. That prediction has proven accurate so far, and the evidence shows that elements of a financial black hole have already been created.
The St. Louis Fed has quietly published data indicating that the US is now entering a recession. This admission was posted right before the new year, clearly as a means to avoid wider media attention. The news also comes not long after the Philadelphia Fed revised their 2nd Quarter labor growth numbers, erasing a whopping 1 million jobs from their original estimates.
The implication is that the Fed may have deliberately misreported jobs growth. Why? Because the central bank wants to continue tightening and they need positive numbers in order to justify rate hikes. The question we need to ask ourselves is why, after over a decade of easy money and QE, is the establishment now so insistent on popping the bubble now?
I can’t say exactly why the timing for the crash has been scheduled for 2023 – What I can say is that the crash will be dramatic and, as I noted in December, this event will probably start accelerating in March/April not long after the Fed hits a 5% interest rate.
Does this mean the central bank will pivot back to stimulus measures? No, it does not. I believe the Fed will stop rate hikes at around 5% for a time, but stimulus will not return. Also, a pause in hikes does not mean they will not restart tightening if price inflation remains high. Keep in mind that the Fed’s official inflation target is 2%; wee are a long way from that goal.
Also, the fed has created untold trillions of dollars since the 2008 credit collapse. They conjured over $8 trillion in 2020 and 2021 alone in the name of the covid economic response, all because of pandemic lockdowns that never should have happened in the first place. The amount of dollars floating around the world is epic and inflation is not going anywhere anytime soon.
Case in point – The US housing market has seen at least 10 consecutive months of sales declines as rates increase, yet prices remain extraordinarily high. In fact, nearly every sector of the consumer market is suffocating from high prices, and climbing interest rates have done little to pull them down. The Fed has room to declare a rationale and a mandate for tighter credit for many months to come.
Of course, the Fed created the stagflationary crisis in the first place, and now their “solution” is set to make things even worse. I have held and continue to hold to my theory that the central bank is deliberately triggering an economic crisis. All of their actions support this theory.
The average middle class citizen faces a serious uphill battle going into the new year. The IMF has admitted that at least 30% of the world is about to enter into recession conditions in 2023 and that the scenario will be “tougher” than last year as the US, EU and China see their economies slow. China, the largest exporter/importer in the world, is witnessing a dramatic downturn in exports which suggests that global consumer activity is tumbling.
The IMF, not surprisingly, is still trying to blame covid and the war in Ukraine for economic developments that central banks and corrupt governments are completely responsible for. This kind of disaster does not gestate in the span of a year, or even a couple of years – It can take a decade or more to inflate the massive financial bubble that held markets together up to 2020, and it takes strategic policy planning to pop that bubble in a way that is timed to coincide with a regional war.
Ukraine has NOTHING to do with current economic developments. Not a thing. The stagflation crisis started well before the war was launched. Covid has nothing to do with the crisis either; covid is essentially dead, but the inflation central banks initiated lives on.
The World Bank has followed along with the IMF’s statements and also recently predicted a sharp global economic downturn in 2023 leading to widespread instability. These kinds of announcements from global banks are very similar to those that occurred right before the credit crash of 2008; the banking establishment has been well aware for years that a major decline is in progress, but they only choose to talk about it publicly at the last minute.
So, as job losses skyrocket this year, as stocks tank and as sales plummet, remember this – The people who are responsible for the entire mess are the same people who are going to come to you one day soon and offer to “save” you and your family from strife. They’ll say that all they need is more power and more centralization to stop the bleeding. Don’t trust them and don’t trust their scapegoat narratives. Trust in yourself and in the liberty minded people around you.
Article cross-posted from Alt-Market.
Starting the Day With a Scripture-Inspired Roast Helps Center Your Thoughts on Eternal Truths Amid Temporal Pressures
The world can seem chaotic, especially right after we wake up. Many believers start their mornings reaching for something familiar — a hot cup of coffee — yet end up settling for mediocre brews that do little more than deliver a caffeine jolt. The daily grind of life, with its endless distractions, news cycles, and responsibilities, can leave even the most faithful feeling spiritually parched alongside their physical fatigue. What if your morning ritual could do more than wake you up? What if it could ground you in truth, nourish your body with exceptional quality, and quietly advance a kingdom purpose at the same time?
That’s the promise — and the reality — behind Promised Grounds Coffee. This Christian-founded company doesn’t just roast beans; it approaches every step as an act of worship and discipleship. By selecting only the top 10% of specialty-grade beans, ethically sourced from dedicated farmers in Central and South America, and small-batch roasting them with reverence in Austin, Texas, Promised Grounds delivers what many describe as the best coffee available — never burnt, never bland, but rich with origin stories and layered flavors that honor God’s creation.
From the vibrant Psalm 27 Roast (a light, bright medium option) to the bold yet peaceful 2 Timothy 1:7 Decaf, each bag carries a Scripture verse that turns your daily pour into a gentle reminder of faith. And through their Ounce Per Ounce Promise, every ounce of coffee you enjoy provides an equal ounce of clean water to families in need via partnership with Filter of Hope — literally brewing hope for body and soul, one cup at a time.
The challenge for today’s Christians runs deeper than finding a decent cup. In an age of convenience-driven consumerism, it’s easy to support companies that dilute values or remain silent on matters of faith. Many believers want their everyday choices — from what they drink to how they spend — to reflect discipleship rather than just convenience. Promised Grounds solves this by weaving Christian excellence into the entire process: beans nurtured with prayerful stewardship by farming families, roasted as an offering rather than a commodity, and packaged with Bible verses to encourage a mindset of gratitude and purpose from the first sip. Reviewers consistently praise the smooth, rich profiles — whether enjoyed black in a drip maker, iced on a warm day, or shared in fellowship — noting how the quality stands toe-to-toe with premium secular brands while delivering something far more meaningful.
This integration of faith and flavor addresses a real need in Christian households and ministries. Busy parents, church leaders, and remote workers alike report that starting the day with a Scripture-inspired roast helps center their thoughts on eternal truths amid temporal pressures. The coffee’s exceptional character — bright citrus notes in lighter roasts or deep chocolate undertones in bolder ones — comes from meticulous selection and careful roasting that respects the bean’s natural gifts rather than masking them. It’s the kind of coffee that elevates a simple quiet time, fuels productive workdays, or sparks meaningful conversations when shared at Bible studies or outreach events. And because it’s ethically sourced with integrity, every purchase supports sustainable livelihoods for farmers who treat their crops like family harvests.
For those leading churches or small groups, the impact multiplies. Promised Grounds offers bundles and options perfect for hospitality ministries, turning ordinary coffee service into an opportunity to point people toward the living water of Christ. Imagine greeting visitors with a warm cup whose very bag carries God’s Word — a subtle yet powerful witness that aligns with the Great Commission. The company’s Texas roots and commitment to “brewing hope” resonate especially with believers who value American enterprise paired with global compassion.
Of course, quality alone isn’t enough if the experience feels out of reach. Promised Grounds keeps it accessible with practical perks like free shipping on orders over $40, sample sets for discovering favorites, and thoughtful add-ons such as faith-themed mugs. Whether you prefer whole beans for fresh grinding, grounds for convenience, or even bulk options for larger households and ministries, the result is consistently superior coffee that makes discipleship feel integrated rather than added on.
As you consider how to align even the smallest habits with your walk with God, Promised Grounds Coffee stands out as a refreshing solution. It tackles the dual problems of subpar daily sustenance and disconnected consumption by offering a product that genuinely excels in taste while advancing a mission of clean water, farmer dignity, and scriptural encouragement. Believers who make the switch often describe it as more than a beverage upgrade — it becomes part of their rhythm of gratitude, a daily invitation to remember that every good gift comes from above.
If you’re ready to transform your mornings (and perhaps your church gatherings) with coffee that honors both exceptional craftsmanship and Christian values, I encourage you to explore what Promised Grounds has to offer. One sip at a time, you’ll be nourishing your body, refreshing your spirit, and participating in something far greater — all while enjoying what truly is among the best coffee available.