As the Federal Reserve continues its fastest rate hike cycle since the stagflation crisis of 1980, a couple vital questions linger in the minds of economists everywhere – When is recession going to strike and when will the Fed reverse course on tightening?
The answers to these queries are at the same time simple and complex: First, the recession has already arrived. Second, the Fed is NOT going to reverse course, though they will probably stop tightening for a time.
The technical definition of a recession in the US is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We already experienced that in 2022, which led the Biden White House and puppet economists within the mainstream media to change the definition. The Federal Reserve also ignored deflationary signals throughout the last year and evidence suggests the central bank along with the Biden Administration even tried to hide the downturn with false employment numbers.
For a few years I have predicted that the establishment would shift into a monetary tightening phase and they would continue with interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions until markets break and the system destabilizes. That prediction has proven accurate so far, and the evidence shows that elements of a financial black hole have already been created.
The St. Louis Fed has quietly published data indicating that the US is now entering a recession. This admission was posted right before the new year, clearly as a means to avoid wider media attention. The news also comes not long after the Philadelphia Fed revised their 2nd Quarter labor growth numbers, erasing a whopping 1 million jobs from their original estimates.
The implication is that the Fed may have deliberately misreported jobs growth. Why? Because the central bank wants to continue tightening and they need positive numbers in order to justify rate hikes. The question we need to ask ourselves is why, after over a decade of easy money and QE, is the establishment now so insistent on popping the bubble now?
I can’t say exactly why the timing for the crash has been scheduled for 2023 – What I can say is that the crash will be dramatic and, as I noted in December, this event will probably start accelerating in March/April not long after the Fed hits a 5% interest rate.
Does this mean the central bank will pivot back to stimulus measures? No, it does not. I believe the Fed will stop rate hikes at around 5% for a time, but stimulus will not return. Also, a pause in hikes does not mean they will not restart tightening if price inflation remains high. Keep in mind that the Fed’s official inflation target is 2%; wee are a long way from that goal.
Also, the fed has created untold trillions of dollars since the 2008 credit collapse. They conjured over $8 trillion in 2020 and 2021 alone in the name of the covid economic response, all because of pandemic lockdowns that never should have happened in the first place. The amount of dollars floating around the world is epic and inflation is not going anywhere anytime soon.
Case in point – The US housing market has seen at least 10 consecutive months of sales declines as rates increase, yet prices remain extraordinarily high. In fact, nearly every sector of the consumer market is suffocating from high prices, and climbing interest rates have done little to pull them down. The Fed has room to declare a rationale and a mandate for tighter credit for many months to come.
Of course, the Fed created the stagflationary crisis in the first place, and now their “solution” is set to make things even worse. I have held and continue to hold to my theory that the central bank is deliberately triggering an economic crisis. All of their actions support this theory.
The average middle class citizen faces a serious uphill battle going into the new year. The IMF has admitted that at least 30% of the world is about to enter into recession conditions in 2023 and that the scenario will be “tougher” than last year as the US, EU and China see their economies slow. China, the largest exporter/importer in the world, is witnessing a dramatic downturn in exports which suggests that global consumer activity is tumbling.
The IMF, not surprisingly, is still trying to blame covid and the war in Ukraine for economic developments that central banks and corrupt governments are completely responsible for. This kind of disaster does not gestate in the span of a year, or even a couple of years – It can take a decade or more to inflate the massive financial bubble that held markets together up to 2020, and it takes strategic policy planning to pop that bubble in a way that is timed to coincide with a regional war.
Ukraine has NOTHING to do with current economic developments. Not a thing. The stagflation crisis started well before the war was launched. Covid has nothing to do with the crisis either; covid is essentially dead, but the inflation central banks initiated lives on.
The World Bank has followed along with the IMF’s statements and also recently predicted a sharp global economic downturn in 2023 leading to widespread instability. These kinds of announcements from global banks are very similar to those that occurred right before the credit crash of 2008; the banking establishment has been well aware for years that a major decline is in progress, but they only choose to talk about it publicly at the last minute.
So, as job losses skyrocket this year, as stocks tank and as sales plummet, remember this – The people who are responsible for the entire mess are the same people who are going to come to you one day soon and offer to “save” you and your family from strife. They’ll say that all they need is more power and more centralization to stop the bleeding. Don’t trust them and don’t trust their scapegoat narratives. Trust in yourself and in the liberty minded people around you.
Article cross-posted from Alt-Market.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.