(The Economic Collapse Blog)—If the U.S. economy really is in “good shape”, then why are so many prominent businesses rushing to permanently shut down locations that were once profitable? As you will see below, U.S. banks are closing thousands of branches and U.S. retailers are closing thousands of stores. If a new golden age of prosperity is dead ahead, that wouldn’t make any sense at all. Of course the truth is that most Americans are really struggling in our current economic environment, and conditions are going to get even worse in 2024.
Bank executives can see what is happening, and so they are feverishly trimming costs.
During the first 10 months of this year, banks in the United States closed a total of 2,118 branches…
U.S. banks closed 2,118 branch locations between January and the end of October, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Sadly, branches continue to get shut down at a staggering rate.
For example, it is being reported that Bank of America has decided to permanently shut down “nearly two dozen Bay Area branches or ATMs”…
Bank of America has shuttered or plans to shutter nearly two dozen Bay Area branches or ATMs, according to recent filings.
Banks are legally required to report closures to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency at least 90 days before their scheduled shuttering, so customers will know if they’ll be impacted.
Another way that banks are cutting costs is by laying off workers.
According to Zero Hedge, twenty of the largest banks have combined to eliminate 61,905 jobs so far this year…
A new report from the Financial Times shows twenty of the world’s largest banks slashed 61,905 jobs in 2023, a move to protect profit margins in a period of high interest rates amid a slump in dealmaking and equity and debt sales. This compared with the 140,000 lost during the GFC of 2007-08.
“There is no stability, no investment, no growth in most banks — and there are likely to be more job cuts,” said Lee Thacker, owner of financial services headhunting firm Silvermine Partners.
FT noted that corporate disclosure data and its independent reporting did not include smaller regional bank cuts, indicating total job loss could be much higher.
The banks are not okay.
In fact, I expect the big banks to make lots of headlines in 2024.
Meanwhile, problems continue to pile up for the retail industry.
CNN says that Nike is “a bellwether for the global economy”, and so the fact that the company is planning to cut costs by about 2 billion dollars is not a good sign at all…
Nike, a bellwether for the global economy, sounded a warning sign Thursday as the sneaker giant sees consumers becoming more cautious.
Nike slashed its revenue outlook for the year and announced cost cuts amid growing concerns that consumers are slowing their spending around the world. The company said it’s looking for as much as $2 billion in cost savings in the next three years, which includes laying off employees.
But at least Nike is still in business.
2023 was a year when U.S. retailers closed thousands of stores, and a number of well known chains actually had to file for bankruptcy…
Twenty major retailers axed 2,847 locations between them in 2023, according to Business Insider – as more and more shoppers buy their products online
The issue has been exacerbated by rampant spates of crime which have forced many companies to lock up their products. Earlier this year, Target alone said it was losing as much as $500 million a year to theft.
It is little wonder then that retailers are struggling to cope. Bed Bath & Beyond, Rite Aid and Party City are among the major chains to have filed for bankruptcy in the last 12 months.
Some of you may be thinking that those retailers are hurting because of the growth of the online retail industry.
But online retailers are going belly up too. For example, Zulily just announced that it will be permanently going out of business…
Online retailer Zulily is shutting down.
The company announced on its website it has made the “difficult but necessary decision to conduct an orderly wind-down of the business.”
Zulily said it will “strive to continue to provide everyone with the best service possible during the holiday season” and it will try to fulfill all pending orders and ensure that orders that could not be filled are canceled and refunded.
Of course the mainstream media will continue to insist that these are just isolated incidents and that the overall economy is doing just fine.
One of the primary reasons why they try to slant economic news in such a positive direction is because most of them are Democrats…
A new study from Syracuse University’s Newhouse School of Public Communications found that just 3.4% of American journalists are Republicans.
The study is based “on an online survey with 1,600 U.S. journalists conducted in early 2022” and is the latest in a series of studies stretching back to 1971 that take the temperature of the fourth estate’s partisan lean, job satisfaction, and professional attitudes.
When the first iteration of the study came out over 50 years ago, 35.5% of respondents said they were Democrats, 25.7% said they were Republicans, and 32.5% said they were Independents.
Since a Democrat is currently in the White House, they want you to feel good about the economy so that you will vote for Democrats in 2024.
But everyone can see that the economy is coming apart at the seams all around us, and most Americans do not have a good feeling about what is coming during the year ahead.
I am entirely convinced that the economic trends that we have witnessed in 2023 will greatly accelerate in 2024. Needless to say, that will not be good news at all.
Sound off about this story on the Economic Collapse Substack.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.