(Daily Signal)—Joe Biden is on his way out of office and as a farewell to all of us, he reviewed the state of affairs abroad to his own State Department. And he made a series of claims that were, to be frank, complete fabrications. He said that the world was calmer now than it was when he inherited.
He inherited a common world of affairs, calm world affairs where there was no war in the Middle East. There was no war in Ukraine. He took credit, if you can believe it, for saving Ukraine.
But when he entered office, remember what he said? He, first of all, said he was going to put on hold the weaponry and munitions necessary for Ukraine’s deterrence that Donald Trump had approved and he did. He was asked what would you do if Vladimir Putin should go into Ukraine. He said, it depends on whether it’s a major, a major invasion that had a green light effect on Vladimir Putin. So did the August, 2021 complete scram, skedaddle from Afghanistan, which we left $50 billion or so of munitions equipment.
We lost 13 great soldiers. We were completely humiliated. That left a signal to Vladimir Putin, as did this reality that Vladimir Putin prior to the Biden presidency had gone into other countries that has left his borders two out of the prior three administrations during the lame duck George W. Bush administration when he went into Georgia and Ossetia, and of course, during the vice presidency of Biden himself and Barack Obama during the Obama presidency, but not Donald Trump.
So you’re Vladimir Putin. You hear that he’s put on hold offensive weaponry to Ukraine. He suggested that he won’t react if it’s a minor invasion. You’ve seen what happened in Afghanistan, and you know that you were able to get away with it in a prior tenure in which Joe Biden participated as vice president.
So why would you claim that you had done this? Outstanding achievement and the war is not over. It’s the worst carnage in Europe since the battle of Stalingrad with 1.7 million dead, wounded or missing. It’s nothing to brag about. It’s a complete catastrophe and it was a result of deterrence being crushed. He also bragged about the Middle East.
He said Iran was, was weak. Yeah, it’s weak because Israel overrode your orders to them not to retaliate in kind when Iran sent 500 projectiles, drones, missiles, cruise missiles in two different occasions. And the Israelis were told not to reply in kind. The only reason that Iran is weak, is ’cause Israel bucked Joe Biden, and they did retaliate, not the way they wanted to, but enough to destroy the air defenses and humiliate Iran.
They were the ones that went into Hezbollah’s territory in Lebanon. Despite, not because of Joe Biden, they decapitated the hierarchy of Hezbollah. They were the ones who destroyed 70% of Hamas against, again, the wishes of Joe Biden. He said that he was tough on China. He said, China wasn’t our rival.
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He allowed a Chinese spy balloon to traverse the United States. For a week, he did nothing. China has been buying systematically strategic acreage around our installations with no effect. China has some 20,000 single males who cross the border. For what purpose, we don’t know, except it must be nefarious.
China surely threatens Taiwan. And why? Well, that’s up to conjecture, but given Hunter Biden’s trips to China on Air Force Two during the vice presidency of Joe Biden and the monies that came from Chinese affiliated corporations, you can see that the Chinese at least believe that he is compromised, he being Joe Biden, by extension, the whole Biden family.
So there’s nothing to brag about. And when you look at the military, he said that, I’m the first president that, that will leave no Afghanistan for my incoming successor. That’s like saying, I lost D-Day, so we pulled out of World War II, and then Harry Truman, if you were going to imagine a conversation with a live [Franklin Delano Roosevelt] FDR, he had no war in World War II, because I lost it.
Yes, Donald Trump didn’t have a war in Afghanistan because you lost it and you humiliated us and you destroyed deterrence. So, you add it all up. I’m sorry. I’m animated. I could go on, but this was the single greatest disaster in foreign policy in a century. And yet he had the audacity to go before the state department and claim it was a great success. And I don’t know whether we should laugh or cry.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Obama Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in a memoir alleged Biden had been “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.” He confirmed when asked in 2019 that he meant what he said. Since then Biden has kept that abysmal record going.