Central bankers and most economists failed to anticipate the sharp increase in inflation that began in 2021, and public policymakers were slow to respond after insisting that price pressures were “temporary,” a new paper co-authored by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke states.
The Fed misjudged the economic effects of pandemic-era fiscal programs, which explains why many failed to accurately forecast the inflation that resulted from the stimulus and relief measures, including the March 2020 $2.2 trillion CARES Act, the December 2020 package that consisted of $900 billion in COVID-related spending, and the March 2021 $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.
The CARES Act, signed by former President Donald Trump, was sufficient enough to strengthen businesses’ and households’ balance sheets and support their ability to spend in the future, the paper claims.
“Overall, as a share of GDP, the headline costs of these three COVID-era fiscal packages were about 4-1/2 times the size of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing recession,” Bernanke and economist Olivier Blanchard wrote in the academic paper, titled “What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?”
However, looking back at the coronavirus pandemic, Bernanke and Blanchard asserted that the inflation bursts were driven by several shocks, such as the dramatic rise in commodity prices, demand shifts (from services to goods), and labor tightness.
But while the economists concede that wage growth had little effect on inflation in early 2021, the paper purports that labor costs increased over time and have become more entrenched in current inflationary pressures.
“The effects of tight labor markets have begun to cumulate,” the paper noted, adding that they will likely “grow and will not subside on its own.”
“The portion of inflation which traces its origin to overheating of labor markets can only be reversed by policy actions that bring labor demand and supply into better balance,” they wrote.
As a result, the Fed has more work to do to curb inflation.
“Labor market balance should ultimately be the primary concern for central banks attempting to maintain price stability,” the paper said.
Bernanke now serves as a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Blanchard, who previously worked as the director of the International Monetary Fund’s research department, is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).
In January 2021, the consumer price index (CPI) was 1.4 percent. The annual inflation rate started to climb in March of that year, shooting up to 2.6 percent before peaking in June 2022 at 9.1 percent. Since then, the CPI has slowed to 4.9 percent, and the Cleveland Fed Bank’s Inflation Nowcast expects the May CPI to ease to 4.1 percent.
Annualized average hourly earnings for all U.S. employees have been elevated throughout the pandemic as employers enticed candidates with higher pay, hovering around 5 percent. Wage gains have been gradually coming down since peaking at 5.9 percent in March 2022, coming in at 4.4 percent in April.
But real wage growth (inflation-adjusted) has been negative for the past two years.
Soft Landing and Labor Markets
Since the central bank’s tightening cycle began in March 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that a soft landing—a moderate economic slowdown, disinflation, and a labor market intact—is possible.
“I continue to think there’s a path to getting inflation back to 2 percent without a significant economic decline or significant increase in unemployment,” Powell said during a post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting press conference in February.
But Bernanke and Blanchard posit that the U.S. economy might need to slow further to clamp down on inflation.
“Looking forward, with labor market slack still below sustainable levels and inflation expectations modestly higher, we conclude that the Fed is unlikely to be able to avoid slowing the economy to return inflation to target,” Bernanke and Blanchard explain in the paper.
The paper states that the Fed’s 2 percent target rate could be achieved if labor market slack falls below 1 over the next two years. This metric monitors the number of job openings for each unemployed jobseeker, so if it dips under 1, it signals that more out-of-work individuals are competing for jobs than there are open positions. It presently sits at 1.6.
“Allowing (the ratio) to remain near current levels does not bring inflation down in our projections. Indeed, because an extended period of inflation raises long-term inflation expectations, it leads to slowly increasing inflation,” Bernanke and Blanchard said.
Bernanke appeared alongside Powell at the Perspectives on Monetary Policy panel discussion at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference on May 19. During the event, Powell suggested that labor market slack didn’t play much of a factor when inflation first spiked in early 2021. However, moving forward, he does believe that “labor market slack is likely to be an increasingly important factor in inflation.”
Meanwhile, despite many expectations suggesting that the unemployment rate needs to climb a few percent higher from its current level of 3.4 percent, Powell conceded during his semi-annual “Monetary Policy Report” to Congress that the labor market doesn’t need to be decimated to restore price stability.
Does this mean interest rates need to be higher? That’s the discussion many Fed officials are having.
St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard expects two more rate increases this year. He told an American Gas Association financial forum in Florida that “we’re going to have grind higher with the policy rate in order to put enough downward pressure on inflation and to return inflation to target in a timely manner.”
Bullard isn’t a voting member of the FOMC.
In a May 22 interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari, a voting member, said it was “a close call” whether to raise rates or hit the pause button at the June FOMC meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors mostly expect the Fed to slam the brakes on rate hikes.
But if the central bank does opt for a rate pause, it might not mean the tightening cycle is over, Kashkari says.
“Some of my colleagues have talked about skipping. Important to me is not signaling that we’re done,” he told the business news network. “If we did, if we were to skip in June, that does not mean we’re done with our tightening cycle. It means to me we’re getting more information.”
The Fed must be “extremely mindful” of when higher interest rates begin to affect the broader economy significantly, warns San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly. The time “is getting nearer,” she said at an economic symposium at the National Association for Business Economics and Banque de France on May 22.
“And when you add the credit tightening that we’ve been seeing to that, it means that there’s a lot of factors pulling back the reins on the economy, and that’s why we have to be so critically data-dependent because if we think it’s not here yet and then we tighten too much, we can easily create an unforced error where we’ve over tightened.”
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.