Editor’s Commentary: It wasn’t but a few years ago that economists judged central bank sentiment about precious metals on how much they sold. If they were selling less gold than normal, that was a sign that they were concerned about the markets. Today and for the last couple of years, central banks have been buying extreme levels of gold and would almost certainly be setting all-time records if it wasn’t for Turkey’s massive sale of gold to its own struggling citizens as they wrestle with massive inflation.
This is why most economists have ignored discussing gold recently. They are still thinking in terms of near-future repercussions and forecasts; the level of gold buying by central banks should mean markets are tanking already. Since they are not, economists have dismissed the gold buying as anomalous. What they’re missing, whether out of intent or ignorance, is that central banks are buying gold in preparation for the burgeoning Central Bank Digital Currencies.
It behooves Americans to follow the real experts. While most economists are still bullish on gold, they are not nearly bullish enough when we consider the trajectory of worldwide economies, de-dollarization, CBDCs, and inflation that continues to rise despite ongoing rate hikes. The central banks seem to know what many economists ignore, that precious metals are poised to be one of the best (and possibly only) major asset class that doesn’t bottom out if/when the “economic crap” hits the fan.
The article below by Peter Reagan breaks down what’s been happening so far. It’s no secret that we’re huge fans of physical precious metals in your safe or backing your retirement accounts, but the prospect of these gold surges continuing is not something we want to hear. Yes, it’s great for our customers but unfortunately it means the vast majority of Americans who do not have the cash or retirement accounts to put into precious metals will suffer. We do NOT delight in the upcoming events that could send gold and silver skyrocketing, but we’ll help people prepare for them nonetheless. With that said, here’s Peter Reagan…
It’s mentioned often how central banks are one of the pillars of support when it comes to gold prices. Lately, though, it seems that they’ve taken on an even more prominent role in the market.
JP Morgan’s analysis recently said that global gold investment has reached the highest level since 2012. They downplayed the role of central banks, noting that individual investors and traders have become increasingly active in the gold market. And it’s hard to argue that gold, increasingly, is becoming a mainstream rather than an “alternative” asset.
But it seems we can’t check the headlines anymore without seeing a report of central bank gold buying. Even Turkey’s decision to sell a fraction of its gold reserves (which is probably the reason 2023 central bank gold buying won’t top last year’s record number) was, counterintuitively, a story about gold demand. The Turkish central bank sold some 71 tons of gold on the domestic market, to its own citizens. Thanks to inflation, citizens have all but abandoned the lira in favor of gold. We’ve reported on the Turkish enthusiasm for gold previously so we won’t recap the nation’s struggles at length.
Still, how strange is it that the Turkish central bank, which was responsible for the nation’s near-50% inflation is now selling gold bullion? And getting paid for it in the very same lira they’d printed a couple weeks ago? Seems like the citizens of Turkey are fed up with Modern Monetary Theory, and voting against it with their wallets…
In other news, China has now extended its streak of official gold purchases for the tenth consecutive month. The 930,000 oz of gold bought in August bring the nation’s official reserves to 2,165 tons. (And, as we know, that figure is probably more than a little under-reported.)
It also shouldn’t escape us that this massive expansion of official central bank gold holdings coincides with a reduction in foreign exchange reserves by 1.38%, the lowest level since the start of the year. In simpler terms, China’s using currency to buy gold – just like you or I would.
It wasn’t that long ago that it would have been strange to find an active central banker talking about gold. Yet today, we find central banks aren’t just hoarding gold themselves, they’re actively encouraging gold ownership among their citizens.
Strange times, indeed.
Article cross-posted from Birch.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.