(Zero Hedge)—Last week we explained how the escalating trade war between the US and China has gradually transformed into a theatrical war of who has the upper hand on any given day. And since it takes a long time for trade obstructions to hit the underlying economy, investors are keenly eyeing the stock, and especially FX, markets for any and every (early) indications of who has the upper hand (even if they are, as we show below, completely false).
Meanwhile in China, it’s all about the optics of not appearing to lose the trade war:
China state firms vow to boost share purchases to stabilize plunging markethttps://t.co/BkliKGFTIW
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2025
Yet so far in the trade war, there has been one notable difference: while US stocks have tumbled (and rightfully so, as Trump institutes shock treatment to ween the US out of its debt-funded reserve currency, trade deficit addiction) and the US dollar has been in freefall, Chinese stocks have been surprisingly resilient and barely dropping, while the yuan reversed its losses last week, which pushed it to a record low only to rebound sharply higher.
There is just one problem: like everything else out of China, it’s market reaction has also been 100% fake.
While the US reaction is understandable, since the political Fed is doing everything it can to tarnish Trump’s approval rating and rugpull the market, and economy, from under him… and for those who say this is nonsense, may we remind you this is precisely what Bill Dudley told the Fed to do during the first Trump trade war…
The day is August 27, 2019. Former NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes a Bloomberg oped saying “the Fed shouldn’t enable Donald Trump” and urged the central bank not to “provide offsetting stimulus” in Trump’s trade war with China.
Six years later, here we are pic.twitter.com/H6WT5O0cMD
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2025
… China, whose central bank is directly controlled by the CCP Politburo, has no such qualms, and as we reported last week, in order to stabilize the stock market China’s Plunge protection team, aka the “National Team”, unleashed a record buying spree of ETFs, which has prevented an all out rout.
At the same time, China has also clearly intervened in the FX market, ordering local banks to sell dollars and buy yuan after last week we saw the offshore yuan plunge to a record low against the dollar. To be sure, China wants devaluation, but not chaotic, uncontrolled devaluation which would spark the mother of all capital runs (Chinese banks have $63 trillion in assets (and by extension deposits), almost triple the US total).
Context: US commercial bank assets ($23.5 trillion) vs China commercial bank assets ($62.6 trillion). pic.twitter.com/6mYaVI2ORJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2025
As an aside, China’s FX intervention would fully explain the bizarre concurrent weakness in both the dollar and TSYs, which some overeager commentators are ascribing to the death of US dollar reserve currency status…
… when in reality it was just a few days of China dumping US bonds and selling the proceeds (US Dollars) to buy yuan.
what if pic.twitter.com/34mLPz8FAC
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2025
So going back to the core thesis, namely that in China it’s all about the optics of not appearing to lose the trade war at least through day to day indicators meant for simplistic, first-order indicator observers (which these days is pretty much everyone in the market), Beijing’s core prerogative remains to prevent a crash in either Chinese stocks or the yuan. And while we described above how China is defending the yuan (at the expense of Treasuries and the dollar, if only up to a point – the point being when China runs out of US reserves to sell), preserving stock market calm is just as important.
Which is why we weren’t at all surprise to read that Chinese bourses have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, Reuters reported noting that Beijing has stepped up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States.
Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors – implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages – had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million).
Failure to comply risked a suspension of trading accounts by the stock exchanges, which have issued the directive, the Reuters sources added.
Echoing everything we have said in the past week, Reuters also adds that “China has taken a slew of measures to stabilise its domestic stock markets, reeling from an escalating trade war with the U.S.” and notes that “the moves have largely shielded stocks in China from the massive selling seen on global markets.”
Brokerages have been asked to closely monitor transactions by private funds and big retail clients, according to a notice issued late on Thursday and seen by Reuters.
The current 50 million yuan daily limit on net sales by investors could be lowered further if the market slumps again, the notice said.
It stands to reason that if you can’t sell, you will- drumroll – buy, and sure enough China and Hong Kong stocks reversed early declines on Friday and narrowed the week’s losses.
Furthermore, as we also reported last week, China’s state fund Central Huijin has vowed to increase stock holdings, a growing number of listed companies are buying back shares, and Chinese brokerages have pledged to steady the market amid higher tariffs and global recession risks.
“Such a restriction is understandable as you don’t want to act against state will,” said one of the brokerage sources. It’s also understandable since China can not afford to give the impression that Trump has leverage in the escalating trade war. Instead, since Chinese stocks are stable, it afford Beijing the optics of being treated almost as an equal, or someone who can match Trump’s tariff escalation blow by blow… when in reality China’s economy is disintegrating below the calm surface.
In other words, without the moves, Chinese stocks would be in freefall – just like its economy – and the yuan would be plunging, while the narrative that Trump is flip-flopping or otherwise “losing” to China, would be DOA. Yet, since the Fed has so far refused to counter its Chinese peers, Trump indeed finds himself at a disadvantage.
But that may soon change, because while the Fed may pretend it has no choice but to wait until the inflation from the tariffs manifests itself (some time in 2035) before easing, Bessent may take matters into his own hands, and without waiting for the Fed, ramp up the amount of treasury buybacks the US Treasury currently conducts every other day or so, in the open market (see full Buyback schedule here).
In fact, the Treasury secretary hinted at this himself in an interview with Bloomberg, when asked if he has contingency plans if the selloff becomes “more unnerving” (for example if foreign countries, i.e. China, may be selling US Treasuries in response to the trade war).
His answer: “we are a long way” from needing to take action, but “we have a big toolkit that we can roll out” if so, and included in that toolkit is the department’s buyback program for older securities, Bessent said. “We could up the buybacks if we wanted” (15’40” in the view below).
And that’s precisely what will happen in a few weeks (or even days) if China’s selling of Treasuries persists, sending yields plunging. The good news, is that this “soft QE” wouldn’t have to be in place too long: only long enough for China to run out of reserves… mostly via Belgium’s Euroclear…
Belgium (mostly China via Euroclear) Treasury holdings are where they were… just before China devalued its currency in 2015 and sold $1TN in US paper ($250BN via Belgium) to contain yuan collapse pic.twitter.com/DUYWqtUl60
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2025
… to sell. Which at the current pace of liquidations should be done by the end of the month.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.