(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that Republican nominee Donald Trump may possibly “make history” on Election Day by winning the popular vote.
Trump’s recent edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in national polling has indicated that he may be in a position to win the popular vote, Enten said. In such a scenario, the former president would become the first Republican nominee in 20 years to win the popular vote.
“Trump may win the popular vote,” Enten said. “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College but Kamala Harris will win the popular vote. But Trump may finally get his great white whale. Harris versus Trump national margin, you mention that New York Times [is] a tie, that’s actually right in the middle of the spectrum when we’re talking about recent polling data. You don’t have to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally. He was up by 2 points in the CNBC poll, up by 3 [points] in the Wall Street Journal poll, very close races within the margin of error.”
“But the bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven’t focused upon, a very, very tight race, John. Fact is Donald Trump is very much in a position [where] he could win the popular, which of course this is something he would absolutely love to do,” Enten continued.
Harris is leading Trump by an average of 1 point in national popular vote polls as of Friday, standing much lower than President Joe Biden’s 9-point lead or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 6-point lead in late October before the elections of 2016 and 2020. The vice president’s narrow lead in national polling indicates that the popular vote is “way too close to call,” Enten said.
“Harris in the average poll right now is up by 1, well within the margin of error. You go back four years ago, Joe Biden was well ahead of Donald Trump in the national popular vote polls. He was up by 9. Even Hillary Clinton was up by 6 points, so now Donald Trump’s in a position he really hasn’t been before at this point in the campaign where he could truly compete and can truly say at this point that the popular vote is way too close to call,” Enten said.
A Republican presidential nominee has not won the popular vote since former President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004. Bush was the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote in a presidential election since his father, George H.W. Bush, was elected in 1988.
“The fact that the polls are so close, the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn’t think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around. He could make history, not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate as well,” Enten continued.
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The former president is faring well in California, New York, Florida and Texas, which is boosting his chances of winning the popular vote, though those states will not determine a victory in the Electoral College, Enten said.
Trump took the lead nationally over Harris with 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll published Thursday, while a new CNBC poll found the former president securing a 2-point lead nationally. The former president also held a 0.8 point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Friday, according to RealClearPolling averages.
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