(DCNF)—Journalist Mark Halperin said Friday that mounting “data” suggests former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris currently trails Trump slightly in all seven top swing states, according to the RealClear Polling averages. Halperin, on his 2WAY platform, noted a lack of confidence among Democrats as Harris’ likelihood of defeating Trump in November appears unlikely.
“Unfortunately for blue America, there’s an asymmetry in what’s going on now. We could spend all day, the three of us, trying to get a Democrat on the phone who was super confident, like, ‘We’re going to win.’ We wouldn’t succeed in terms of political professionals, members of Congress, strategists,” Halperin said.” It would take us one call, random dial any Republican in our rolodex, to find someone who said, ‘Yeah, I’m pretty confident we’re going to win.’ Or more.”
“Okay, that’s an asymmetry. It’s just a reality. Some attribute it to cultural differences between the party and there’s something to that,” he continued. “There’s qualitative and quantitative data everywhere you look that things have moved in Trump’s direction and that it will be difficult for her to win, but not impossible. And that is causing a lot of tension in blue America.”
Halperin then pointed to The New York Times/Siena College’s last national poll of the 2024 election cycle, which the outlet published on Friday and found Trump and Harris tied at 48%. The previous NYT/Siena poll published on Oct. 8 found Harris leading Trump 49% to 46% nationally.
“The conventional wisdom has been, even though it may be false, that if Donald Trump is tied or within a couple points in the national poll, he’s going to win. Now The New York Times says it’s possible that Kamala Harris could win the electoral college and lose the popular vote,” Halperin said. “And we’ve talked about Trump over-performing from last time in the big blue states that could make him a bigger popular vote winner, but still lose the electoral college. Possible.”
The poll also found Trump drawing 42% of Hispanic voters and 11% of black voters. Halperin read from an X post from CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein reacting to the poll, which states it “shows Harris basically matching [President Joe] Biden winning 2020” percentages among whites, but “slipping” among minorities, particularly Latinos.
The analyst asserted this data “explains why less diverse Rustbelt states remain the most plausible path for her, as they were for Biden.”
The journalist also read from an X post from pollster and former Bill Clinton adviser Mark Penn, which states, “[The Wall Street Journal] and Forbes polls all show 3 to 4 point movements in the direction of Trump in the last few weeks. This is real movement and momentum going into the close. It is still close but this is a substantial move.”
Halperin also asserted Tuesday that Trump will be elected president on Nov. 5 if the current early voting trajectory “continues.”
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