Elon Musk, the billionaire head of Tesla, Space X, and Twitter, on Thursday predicted a “serious recession” in 2023 and promised not to sell Tesla stock next year “under any circumstances.”
Speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio forum, Musk also assured investors Tesla hadn’t “skipped a beat on execution” since he took over Twitter. Twitter required an initial period of intense focus to get its “insane … costs under control” to stop it from going “flat bankrupt” next year, Musk said.
“I was still doing Tesla work during that time as well, by the way. And I think really Tesla has really not skipped a beat on execution,” he said. “The Tesla team is doing an incredible job across the board in execution.”
Tesla share prices fell further on Thursday over concerns about slowing demand for electric vehicles. Musk’s stock sales and focus on Twitter have also been blamed as a contributing factor, but Musk rejected this on Thursday, blaming the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases.
‘Won’t Sell Stock’
Musk sold around 22 million Tesla shares between Dec. 12 and 14, valued at roughly $3.6 billion, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. He has sold around $23 billion in Tesla shares since April, with much of the funds going toward his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter.
On Thursday, he promised not to sell any more stocks for the next two years.
“You have my commitment that I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter,” Musk said.
Musk said he needed to sell some of his stock “to make sure, like, there’s powder dry … to account for a worst-case scenario.” The phrase “powder dry” means to always be prepared to take action yourself. Musk has previously made promises about not selling Tesla stock before subsequently selling it.
- Hand-curated links from conservative and Christian sites — NO legacy media garbage links. Patriots get their news every day at JDRucker.com
Less Focus on Twitter
Once he gets “the engine of engineering at Twitter” humming to ensure the social network can develop new features, Musk expects the social network to take up far less of his focus.
“In the grand scheme of things, the amount of cognitive load that Twitter represents is low. I mean, it is a much simpler problem than Tesla or SpaceX, obviously, by a hundred miles,” Musk said.
“I’d say it was a high cognitive load for about a month. At this point, it is a moderate cognitive load. A month from now, it’ll be, I think, low,” he continued.
“And if I look back and say, like: ‘What are actions I could have taken? Was there something that I failed to do at Tesla that could have been done and would have improved our execution?’ I literally can not think of a single thing.”
Musk noted that he hadn’t missed a single important meeting at Tesla since taking over Twitter, with both primarily based in the Bay Area of San Francisco.
‘Serious Recession’
The real issue is not how much time Musk might be putting into Twitter versus Tesla; according to the billionaire, it is the Federal Reserve’s “radical interest rate changes” pushing up the price of cars. Musk predicted a “serious recession” next year “comparable to 2009,” with decreasing demand for big-ticket items like vehicles.
With respect to global demand for vehicles, Musk said that interest rate rises push up the costs of both new and used cars, which he noted are mostly bought with leases and loans. He said a decrease in car demand, along with the Fed’s rate increases pushing up the cost of a car, creates a “double whammy.”
“So now you have structural demand, which is obviously going to be lower in a recession, and you’ve amplified the effect of cost of a car because they’re almost all bought with debt, so you get a double whammy, is what I’m saying,” he said.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve voted at their last monetary policy meeting on Dec. 14 to hike the benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.25–4.5 percent, the highest level since late 2007. It was the seventh consecutive rise since March, totaling 425 basis points.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the fight against inflation has a long way to go. Most officials expect rates to rise over 5 percent next year, which is more than originally predicted.
“I wouldn’t see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2 percent in a sustained way,” Powell said.
‘Hard Landing’
Musk rejected the idea that his political tweets are having an impact on Tesla share prices, contending that automotive demand is “problematic almost anywhere in the world” and “not everywhere cares about my political comments.”
“I really just don’t think this is a significant factor,” he said.
In Musk’s opinion, the U.S. economy is already in a period of deflation, and the Fed’s predictions are based on old data.
“The thing that I think most people don’t realize is how—I sound like a broken record on this—how big of an impact the Fed rate level is, at over 5 percent, if we are in a deflationary environment, which I think we are in,” he said.
“Objectively, we are,” he added.
Musk said it was “blowing my mind” that the Fed has raised rates to their current level, and said he believes that they are “dealing with old information.”
“The economy right now is like a car driving around on a cliffside road, and the Fed is driving it by looking out the rearview mirror,” he said. “In fact, it’s not even looking out the rearview mirror. It’s looking at a video taken out of the rearview mirror that’s like three months old. So obviously, this is not a good way to drive a car on a windy road.”
The Epoch Times has contacted the Federal Reserve for comment.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.