The United States is at the beginning of a slowdown as the economy continues to face significant upside inflation risks and tighter credit conditions, according to new minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.
(Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times)
Although the economy has been expanding at a “moderate pace,” the latest credit developments in the “sound and resilient” banking system were “likely to weigh on economic activity” for businesses and households.
Staff economists no longer see a “mild recession” later this year amid better-than-expected spending and real activity.
“However, the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level,” the minutes stated.
Most rate-setting committee members agreed that more interest-rate hikes could be needed if additional inflation risks materialize. Participants noted that inflation remained unacceptably high, and that more evidence was needed to determine if price pressures are diminishing on a sustainable basis.
“With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy,” the meeting summary stated.
At the same time, Federal Reserve officials fear that the central bank could tighten too much, producing a series of risks for the broader economy.
“A number of participants judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the Committee’s goals had become more two sided, and it was important that the Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening,” the FOMC minutes stated.
A couple of participants in the July FOMC meeting supported hitting the pause button. There were indicators that the jobs arena was going through a better balance despite the tight labor market.
“The labor market remained very tight, though the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market was gradually diminishing,” the minutes said.
The U.S. financial markets maintained their losses following the release of the minutes, as the leading benchmark indexes were in the red.
Treasury yields were mostly up, with the benchmark 10-year yield adding nearly 4 basis points to 4.26 percent. The two-year yield picked up 3 basis points to above 4.98 percent.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a measurement of the greenback against a basket of currencies, strengthened above 103.40 after the minutes.
To Hike or Not to Hike
Over the past week, several Fed officials have offered thoughts about monetary policy, particularly on the interest-rate front.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told the APi Group’s Global Controllers Conference on Aug. 15 that he isn’t ready to declare mission accomplished in the inflation battle, hinting that there could be more tightening ahead.
“Inflation is coming down. We have made progress and good progress. I feel good about that. It’s still too high,” Mr. Kashkari said. “The question on my mind is, have we done enough to actually get inflation all the way back down to our 2 percent target? Or do we have to do more? Are we done raising rates? I’m not ready to say that we’re done.”
In July, the annual inflation rate ticked up for the first time in a year, rising to 3.2 percent from 3 percent in June. This came in softer than expected, but economists agree that it isn’t a trend that the central bank wants to see.
Concerns were amplified following the higher-than-expected jump in producer prices, climbing to 0.8 percent year over year and 0.3 percent month over month in July. Both were up considerably from June. A higher producer price index is typically considered by economists to be a precursor to rising consumer prices.
According to Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker, consumer prices have slowed to the point at which the central bank can think about hitting the brakes and steadily holding the benchmark fed funds rate.
“Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work,” Mr. Harker said in a prepared speech at an event sponsored by the Philadelphia Business Journal on Aug. 8.
While monetary policy isn’t a “preset course” and economic data will drive future moves, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that policymakers will need to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
“I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,” she said at a Kansas Bankers Association event on Aug. 7. “We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.”
The FOMC will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Sept. 19 and 20.
The futures market is mostly pricing in a rate pause, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Despite the FOMC’s June Summary of Economic Projections, which forecasted one more rate hike this year, investors anticipate that the central bank will keep the policy rate at the current range and then start to pull the trigger on rate cuts in March 2024 or May 2024.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.