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Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risks May Accelerate a Debt Crisis

by Daniel Lacalle
October 16, 2023

  • Why People With High Credit Scores Are Locking in These 0% Interest Credit Card Offers


(The Epoch Times)—Many investors are warning of the risk of a debt crisis, but governments are ignoring all the signals.

In an inflationary crisis, the government should reduce expenditures to help curb price increases while also anticipating a significant increase in borrowing costs. However, in this crisis, the Biden administration is ignoring all the warning signs and continuing to borrow at a record pace.

Debt crises always happen when even the most conservative investors refuse to add to a sovereign bond portfolio that is loss-making to begin with. Central banks may decide to purchase those unwanted government bonds, but then the inflation problem worsens and the losses at the central bank accumulate.

The enormous problem created by the monetary and fiscal insanity of 2020 is difficult to solve. Central banks are already publishing losses in their assets, and those negative results must be covered by taxpayers.

Government bonds have been an atrocious investment in 2022 and continue to generate negative results for investors in 2023. Furthermore, sovereign debt is rising at a record pace, ignoring the wall of maturities that the global fixed-income world is facing in 2024 and 2025.

The U.S. national debt has soared by $550 billion in less than a month. Total debt was $31.4 trillion in July and soared to $33.5 trillion in less than four months. This happened while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 3.7 percent to 4.6 percent. Imagine a government that massively increases debt and does so at a record speed when there is a $500 billion investment-grade maturity wall in 2025 and the government faces $7.6 trillion of maturities of public debt in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also noted that data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show that U.S. Treasury net long positions in two-year and 10-year notes have fallen to the lowest level since October 2018. This is truly a dangerous scenario in the middle of geopolitical tensions reaching new highs.

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The U.S. government is counting on rising global demand for U.S. dollars to offset the increased fiscal imbalances and on the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy if needed. This is a dangerous bet when China, Saudi Arabia, and other nations’ Treasury holdings are dropping to multiyear lows. It is also extremely imprudent to believe that the world will absorb the United States’s fiscal imbalances at any cost in the middle of a global geopolitical conflict. Furthermore, it is reckless to believe that the Federal Reserve will buy all the Treasury bonds required when the central bank is already loss-making. Such a level of irresponsibility may put the U.S. dollar in danger in the long term.

The United States’s fiscal imbalances are enormous, but so are the deficit levels of many other developed nations, and the combination of rising rates, losses at the central bank, and impending giant maturity walls happens as well in the eurozone.

All of this is evidence of the monetary debasement process that started in 2009, but accelerated in 2020. Governments are destroying the purchasing power of their currencies to disguise their enormous debt and deficit levels, and inflation is eroding citizens’ savings and wages. In this environment, sovereign bonds never protect investors.

Governments do not want to pay for the risk they take and will absorb others’ wealth via negative real rates or price losses in the issued bonds. The inflationary spiral is likely to remain persistent, and the prospect of another round of quantitative easing may not offset the accumulated losses in bond portfolios and certainly will not modify the currency debasement scenario.

In a period like this, gold becomes the cheapest asset by far. It is inexpensive relative to its historical purchasing power and monetary qualities, but it is even more attractive relative to the fiat currencies whose monetary value is dissolved by massive printing. The current debt problem and the geopolitical risk tell us that gold is a safe bet in a volatile world.

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Three Reasons a Coffee Gift Set From This Christian Company Is Perfect for Christmas

Promised Grounds Gift Pack

When you’re searching for a Christmas gift that’s meaningful, useful, and rooted in faith, you don’t want to settle for anything generic. This season is filled with noise — mass-produced products, last-minute picks, and trends that fade as quickly as they appear. But one gift stands apart because it blends genuine quality with a message that matters: a coffee gift set from Promised Grounds Coffee.

This small Christian-owned company has become a favorite among believers who want to support faith-driven businesses while giving friends and family something they’ll actually enjoy. Here are three reasons a Promised Grounds Coffee gift set may be the most thoughtful and impactful present you give this year.

1. It’s Truly Delicious Coffee

Too many “gift-worthy” coffees look beautiful in the package but disappoint when the cup is poured. Promised Grounds takes the opposite approach — exceptional taste first, thoughtful presentation second.

Their beans are sourced with care, roasted in small batches, and crafted to bring out a rich, smooth flavor profile that appeals to both casual drinkers and true coffee lovers. Whether someone enjoys bold, dark roasts or lighter, more delicate blends, every sip reflects quality that stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the biggest specialty brands.

Simply put: this coffee is good. Really good. Some say it’s absolutely fantastic. If you want a gift that won’t be re-gifted, ignored, or shoved in a cabinet, this is it.

2. It Spreads the Word While Serving a Real Purpose

There are many Christian gifts that are meaningful… but not exactly practical. There are also useful gifts that have nothing to do with faith. Promised Grounds Coffee bridges both worlds beautifully.

Each gift set delivers an encouraging, faith-centered message through its packaging and presentation — a simple but powerful reminder of God’s goodness during the Christmas season. The cups are especially popular and serve as a daily reminder of the blessings from our Lord. At the same time, the product itself is something people will actually use and appreciate every single day.

It’s a gift that uplifts the spirit and fills the mug. A gift that points loved ones toward Scripture while still being part of the normal rhythm of life. And in a culture that increasingly pushes faith to the margins, giving a gift that quietly but confidently honors Christ can make a deeper impact than you might expect.

3. It’s Affordable, Valuable, and Elegantly Presented

Many people want to give something meaningful without breaking their Christmas budget. Promised Grounds Coffee strikes that perfect balance — the sets look and feel premium, but the price remains accessible.

The packaging is classy, clean, and gift-ready, making it ideal for:

  • Family members of all ages
  • Co-workers or employees
  • Church friends or small-group leaders
  • Hosts, neighbors, and last-minute gift needs

It’s the kind of gift that feels more expensive than it is — and more thoughtful than most of what you’ll find on store shelves.

The Perfect Blend of Faith, Flavor, and Christmas Cheer

A coffee gift set from Promised Grounds Coffee checks every box: a gift that tastes amazing, conveys your faith, supports a Christian business, and brings daily enjoyment to the person who receives it. In a season when so many gifts are forgotten, this one stands out for all the right reasons.

If you want a Christmas present that reflects your values and delivers genuine joy, Promised Grounds Coffee is the perfect place to start.

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