(Kitco News)—After holding initial support at $3,000 an ounce, gold’s rally continues unabated, ending the week at another record high.
Gold prices are moving within striking distance of $3,100 an ounce. While momentum indicators show growing overbought conditions, analysts say the market continues to benefit from solid fundamental support. Gold is trading at $3,077.30 an ounce, up 0.68% on the day, and is set to end the week with a nearly 2% gain.
Friday also marked the end of the last full trading week of the month and the quarter. Gold prices are up roughly 8% in March and are on track to end the quarter with a 17% gain.
Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said that while gold has seen a significant rally so far this year, prices still have upside momentum.
“Smart money knows one thing very clearly: a large part of the bad news is already baked into the prices, and there is limited room for further downside. Especially considering the parabolic moves we’ve seen,” he said. “That said, traders must keep in mind that the trade war is not over, which means there are plenty of unknown events still lingering. This suggests that, after a retracement, gold prices may continue to move higher.”
David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, noted that gold has pushed into overbought territory; however, levels remain below where they were six weeks ago. He added that investors should be cautious at current prices.
“For now, they seem relatively happy to continue climbing their ‘wall of worry.’ So far, profit-taking has led to only shallow dips, which have been met with fresh buying. But this only increases the probability of a bigger pullback at some stage,” he said.
Tom Bruce, Macro Investment Strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, said that even at elevated prices, gold remains an attractive safe-haven asset. He explained that gold has only seen shallow corrections due to high levels of economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. In this environment, he continues to expect higher gold prices.
“There’s both a technical and fundamental case for gold to continue higher from here,” he said. “If you look at everything that’s transpiring right now in the world economy, and the way the Trump administration is trying to restructure global trade, it’s creating a lot of uncertainty — and that’s good for gold.”
Looking to next week, some analysts say that $3,100 will be an important level to watch and could signal a near-term top in the market.
“It’s been a really impressive run so far, and I’ve seen little reason in the price action to expect any major trend changes at this point,” said James Stanley, Senior Market Strategist at Forex.com. “That said, chasing prices up here can be a difficult strategy, given how aggressively it has rallied. With the quarterly cut coming early next week and prices still surging over $3,000, I think a pullback could happen in the not-too-distant future. The $3,100 level would make sense as a potential trigger for that.”
Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at StoneX Group, said he could see some profit-taking in the near term and is also watching $3,100 an ounce as a potential top.
“While dip buyers are lurking, a rug pull is becoming increasingly likely at these levels, in my view. When risk appetite turns sour and stocks start falling, people tend to liquidate their profitable long gold positions to free up margin,” he said. “For me, the short-term trigger could be a potential break below the recent low of $3,066, while in a slightly longer-term view, a move below $3,000 would be needed to trigger a more meaningful drop.”
Beyond gold’s technical momentum, its price remains well supported as U.S. economic data continues to highlight slower growth. Next week’s employment data is expected to create some volatility. Analysts say any weakness in the labor market could weigh on equity markets and boost safe-haven demand for gold.
“Payrolls likely lost modest momentum in March amid rising uncertainty around the U.S. economic outlook and DOGE-related layoffs,” said economists at TD Securities.
Beyond economic data, economists will also be watching to see how the world reacts to the implementation of U.S. trade tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 2.
“Key questions will be how broad the tariffs are (will autos, chips, and pharma be included?), when they take effect (immediately? In 30 days?), how much leeway other countries will have to offset some or all of them, and how much influence any market reaction could have on the policy itself,” said analysts at TDS.
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