(DailyReckonings via Zero Hedge)—The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of Day One executive orders over the course of January 20 and 21 immediately after the inauguration. More executive orders are in the pipeline.
This all stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s 2016 transition process where the nominees were not well chosen, confirmation went slowly, and the deep state holdovers from the Obama administration were still in place. What a difference four years makes.
We are extremely optimistic about Trump’s economic plans. Whether by executive order, regulatory processes or legislation, Trump will be pursuing lower taxes, less regulation, and higher tariffs on foreign trading partners in order to promote high-paying jobs in the U.S.
Some complain that Trump’s America First policies may hurt growth in places like China, India and Brazil. That’s entirely possible but too bad. China needs to figure out how to Make China Great Again. That’s China’s job, not the job of the United States.Trump’s job is to Make America Great Again and he’s off to a good start.
The U.S. Consumer of Last Resort
Simply put, the U.S. consumes more than it produces. Americans buy consumer goods and solar panels from China, semiconductors from Taiwan, steel from Japan and automobiles from Korea. The difference is purchased from abroad and paid for with U.S. dollars, which foreign central banks use to load up on U.S. debt.
The U.S. runs a trade deficit along with a budget deficit and is in debt to the world. Those days are over. Asians, Africans and Latin Americans can still sell goods to the U.S. but they’ll have to manufacture those goods in the U.S. to get over high tariff walls. The result is good paying jobs in America.
With higher earnings, Americans can save more. Foreign investment in the U.S. will also rise as foreign manufacturers build here to avoid tariffs. Eventually, higher savings and higher investment will close the production gap and reduce the trade deficit. Among other consequences, look for a stronger dollar as the world scrambles for dollars to invest here. That makes the rest of the world cheaper for U.S. consumers and reduces inflation also. It’s a win-win-win policy.
3 Threats on the Horizon
The fact that Trump’s policies are sound, and the long-term economic prospects are good, should not divert us from the fact that there are serious economic challenges in the near-term. These will not be Trump’s fault because they have been years in the making. But the damage may emerge early in Trump’s term.
This scenario is not unlike the start of Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1981. The U.S. had its worst recession since the end of World War II during 1981-82. (We’ve had worse recessions since, but 1981-82 was the worst up until that time).
It took a few years for Reagan’s policies to take effect. The period 1983-1986 was one of the strongest growth spurts in recent history with 16% compounded real growth. But we had to get through a rough patch first.
Here’s a summary of three economic threats to investors that may emerge over 2025 before we get to higher ground expected in 2026 and beyond:
1. Stock Market Crash
Markets are at or near all-time highs based on every available metric: P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP ratio, concentration risk, etc. This stock market bubble is amplified by indexing, investor complacency and analyst euphoria. When such conditions have existed in the past, they have always been followed by market crashes of 50% to 90% unfolding over several years. Examples include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929), the Nikkei (1989), NASDAQ (2000), and the S&P 500 Index (2008).
We are now positioned for an historic crash. The specific cause does not matter – it could be war, natural disaster, a bank or hedge fund collapse or other unexpected event. What matters is the super-fragility of the market when the trigger is pulled. This is why Warren Buffett has over $300 billion in cash and why central banks are buying gold.
Investors should prepare now; don’t be the last one to know. Strategies include reducing allocations to stocks, increasing allocations to cash and purchasing some gold (up to 10% of your investable assets) to participate in a flight to quality.
2. A U.S. Recession Is Coming
This is problematic for stocks independent of any crash potential. Inflation has persisted, energy prices are back up to interim highs, unemployment is going up, job hiring is frozen, and the manufacturing sector is contracting.
Federal reserve rate cuts won’t help. They do not provide “stimulus.” Rate cuts are a sign of economic weakness, not strength. The Fed is not leading the interest rate market. They are following the market down.
Of course, a recession could trigger a market crash. But even if it does not, recessions are typically associated with 30% declines in stock valuations over a year or less. The investment strategy for a recession is substantially the same as the crash strategy.
3. Currency Wars Are Back and Trade Wars Are Coming
The super-strong dollar today makes it difficult for other countries to buy U.S. goods. Tariffs will make the global dollar shortage worse as foreign investors seek dollars to jump the tariff walls and invest directly in the U.S.
Both the strong dollar and the coming U.S. tariffs invite retaliation by trading partners who will put up their own tariff walls. The result will be a global contraction in trade that could resemble the trade collapse of the 1930s during the Great Depression. U.S. stocks fell 85% from October 1929 to June 1932 during that episode of trade wars. A repeat could be on the way if economies such as China (that should be boosting consumption) choose to fight trade wars instead.
We’ll be closely monitoring all these threats and provide you with the best in analysis and recommendations in the coming weeks and months.
Safeguarding Your American Dream: Discover the Power of America First Healthcare
In today’s economy, healthcare costs remain one of the biggest threats to financial stability and family security. Americans work hard to build a better life, yet rising medical expenses can quickly erode savings, force tough trade-offs, and even push families toward debt or bankruptcy. Medical bills continue to rank as the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States, with millions facing underinsurance or unexpected out-of-pocket burdens that no one plans for. Many turn to government-run marketplace plans under the Affordable Care Act, hoping for relief, only to discover that what appears affordable on paper often delivers higher long-term costs, limited real protection, and coverage that may not align with personal values or family needs.
America First Healthcare stands out as a private insurance agency dedicated to helping conservatives and families secure better coverage and better rates through customized, values-aligned options. By conducting free insurance reviews, the agency uncovers hidden gaps in existing policies and connects clients with private alternatives that emphasize personal responsibility, small-government principles, and genuine affordability—often delivering up to 20% savings while providing stronger protection for the American Dream.
The allure of marketplace plans is easy to understand: open enrollment periods, premium tax credits for many households, and the promise of “comprehensive” benefits mandated by law. Yet recent data reveals a different reality, especially after the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies at the end of 2025. Enrollment for 2026 dropped by more than one million people compared to the prior year, with many shifting to lower-tier bronze plans to keep monthly premiums manageable.
These plans feature significantly higher deductibles—averaging around $7,500 nationally—and greater cost-sharing requirements. Families who once paid modest amounts after subsidies now face average premium increases of $65 or more per month, even as they accept plans that leave them responsible for thousands in upfront costs before meaningful coverage kicks in.
High deductibles create a dangerous barrier to care. Studies show that people in such plans are less likely to seek timely treatment for chronic conditions, attend preventive screenings, or fill necessary prescriptions. A seemingly minor illness or injury can balloon into major expenses when patients delay care until problems worsen. For a family of four, a single hospitalization, cancer diagnosis, or unexpected surgery can easily exceed the deductible, triggering coinsurance and out-of-pocket maximums that still leave substantial bills. One recent analysis noted that some proposed changes could push family deductibles toward $31,000 in future years, further exposing households to financial risk.
Beyond the numbers, marketplace plans often carry structural limitations. Coverage for certain critical services may include waiting periods or narrower networks that restrict access to preferred doctors and specialists. Preventive care is required to be covered without cost-sharing, but everything else—lab work, imaging, specialist visits, or ongoing treatment—typically waits until the deductible is met. This reactive model contrasts sharply with the proactive, holistic approach many families prefer, especially those focused on wellness, early intervention, and maintaining health to enjoy life rather than merely reacting to illness.
Values alignment represents another growing concern. Government-influenced plans operate within a framework shaped by federal mandates and political priorities that may not reflect conservative principles of limited government, personal freedom, and ethical stewardship. Families who want to direct their healthcare dollars toward providers and benefits that honor traditional values sometimes find marketplace options feel misaligned, forcing a compromise between affordability and conviction.
Private alternatives, by contrast, offer year-round flexibility without the restrictions of open enrollment windows. Independent agents can shop across a wider range of carriers to design plans tailored to specific family needs—whether that means lower deductibles for frequent medical users, broader provider networks, or add-ons that support wellness and preventive services from day one. Clients frequently report more stable premiums that do not automatically escalate each year, along with genuine cost savings once the full picture of deductibles, copays, and coverage depth is considered.
Take the experience of real families who made the switch. Amanda C. shared that her new plan felt “way better” than what she had through the marketplace. Johnny Y. noted his previous coverage kept increasing annually until he found a more stable private option. Sofia S. expressed delight with her plan and began recommending it to others. These stories echo a common theme: when families move beyond one-size-fits-all government marketplaces, they often discover customized protection that better safeguards both health and finances.
Founder Jordan Sarmiento’s own journey underscores the stakes. In 2021, a six-day hospitalization generated a $95,000 bill. Under a well-structured private “Conservative Care Coverage” plan, his out-of-pocket responsibility would have been just $500. That stark difference illustrates how thoughtful planning and private options can prevent a medical event from becoming a financial catastrophe.
Practical steps exist for anyone questioning their current coverage. Start with a no-obligation review of your existing policy to identify gaps—high deductibles, limited critical-care benefits, or escalating premiums. Compare total projected costs (premiums plus potential out-of-pocket expenses) rather than monthly premiums alone. Consider family health history, anticipated needs, and lifestyle priorities. Private agencies can present side-by-side options that include stronger wellness incentives, broader access, and plans built on shared values of self-reliance and freedom.
In an era when healthcare inflation continues to outpace general cost-of-living increases, relying solely on marketplace solutions carries growing risk. Families who proactively explore private alternatives frequently achieve meaningful savings while gaining peace of mind that their coverage truly works when needed most.
America First Healthcare makes this exploration straightforward through its free review process. Families and individuals receive personalized guidance to close coverage holes, reduce unnecessary expenses, and secure plans that align with conservative principles—protecting wallets, health, and the American Dream without government overreach. Many who complete a review discover they can enjoy better benefits for less, often saving up to 20% while gaining the customization and stability that marketplace plans struggle to deliver.
Ultimately, protecting your family’s future requires looking beyond the marketing of “affordable” government options. By understanding the long-term costs hidden in high deductibles, shifting coverage tiers, and values mismatches, Americans can make empowered choices. Private, values-driven insurance offers a smarter path—one that rewards diligence, supports wellness, and delivers real security. For those ready to move beyond the limitations of traditional marketplace plans, a simple review can reveal options designed to serve families, not bureaucracies. The American Dream thrives when individuals and families retain control over their healthcare decisions, and thoughtful private coverage plays a vital role in making that possible.