(Substack)—President Trump is hesitant to bomb Iran because he worries it could lead to chaos like in Libya after its leader, Muammar Gaddafi, was overthrown in 2011, according to people close to his administration. They told The Post that Trump is delaying his decision on joining Israel’s airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program for up to two weeks.
Trump has mentioned Libya’s descent into disorder after the U.S. and NATO bombed the country to remove Gaddafi, three sources said. “Trump doesn’t want it to turn into Libya,” one insider explained, referring to the administration’s talks about possibly supporting Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.
On Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is waiting because “there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi will meet with European officials in Geneva on Friday, but Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, won’t attend, though he’s been talking to Iran separately, Leavitt added.
One source heard Trump privately say he’s concerned about Iran becoming like Libya before Israel started its airstrikes. Others were told he mentioned Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq after the conflict began. A fifth source, briefed on Trump’s thoughts, said he’s leaning toward limited U.S. airstrikes using 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz, which Israel’s jets can’t carry.
“Libya was a much more extended kind of bombing commitment, and it ended up being regime change,” the fifth source noted. “If the regime falls [in Iran], then it’s not on Trump, because that’s not the goal of his very limited strike.” They also worried that “we get somebody worse than Khamenei.” The source added, “As far as President Trump goes, he’s not going to get in the business of who runs Iran, that’s very salable to his base.”
If the U.S. uses bunker busters, one source said, “there is still dealing with Iran’s response,” including fears of contamination or Iran retaliating with terrorism. “He’d rather have a deal,” the source told The Post.
Another source who heard Trump directly said, “There are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi. The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran.”
Israel’s defense minister called Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei “the modern Hitler” on Thursday, saying, “The IDF has been instructed and knows that to achieve all the objectives, without question this man should no longer continue to exist.” Later, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the U.S. role is “entirely” Trump’s choice, claiming Israel can destroy Iran’s nuclear sites without U.S. bombs. “We will achieve all our objectives and hit all of their nuclear facilities. We have the capability to do that,” Netanyahu said.
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Trump’s team is also worried about reports from the UN that Iran is enriching uranium far beyond what’s needed for civilian use, at levels “unprecedented for a non-nuclear state,” a U.S. official said. CIA Director John Ratcliffe compared Iran’s nuclear program to a football team one yard from scoring a touchdown, suggesting they’re ready to build a weapon.
Experts doubted Israel could destroy Fordow, a nuclear site deep underground, since their 2,000-pound bombs may not be strong enough. Trump often points to Libya, where Gaddafi, who ruled for 42 years and gave up his nuclear program in 2003, was ousted with U.S. help. Libya then fell into chaos, with warlords, extremists, slave markets, and Islamic State violence.
Leavitt said at Thursday’s briefing, “The president is balancing a lot of viewpoints and he is listening not just to other world leaders, but to his advisors and to people here in the country and the American people too.” She shared Trump’s statement: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” On regime change, Leavitt said, “The president’s top priority right now is to ensure that Iran can not attain a nuclear weapon and providing peace and stability to the Middle East.”
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