(The Economic Collapse Blog)—What is the Fed not telling us? The numbers clearly indicate that big trouble is brewing in the banking system. I wish that I could specifically tell you which banks are in the most trouble, but at this stage we simply aren’t being told anything. They probably figure that the best approach is to try to keep everyone as calm as possible. But they won’t be able to keep a lid on what is going on indefinitely, and when word finally gets out people could start to panic.
In recent weeks, bank reserves have fallen to alarmingly low levels.
In fact, last week they fell to the lowest level that we have seen in more than four years…
US bank reserves have crashed to a four-year low, plunging to about $2.8 trillion, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, sending fresh warning signals across Wall Street and Washington. The steep decline marks the second straight week reserves have stayed below $3 trillion, a critical threshold analysts say could test the banking system’s liquidity strength.
By itself, this doesn’t necessarily signal that we are facing a major crisis.
But everyone agrees that what we are witnessing is certainly unusual.
What is causing far more alarm is what occurred on Friday.
All of a sudden, there was an insane amount of demand for overnight repo cash…
Federal Reserve reportedly pumped about $29.4 billion into the markets via overnight repos.
That’s a big number and it signals something I’m watching closely. According to the data for “Overnight Repurchase Agreements — Treasury Securities Purchased by the Fed” the figure for Oct 31, 2025 is $29.400 billion.
In other words: The Fed is quietly stepping in and stepping up.
To me, this is clear evidence that something just broke.
Who suddenly needed that much cash?
And why did they need it?
The chart that I have posted below comes directly from the Federal Reserve, and it should chill you to the core…
But that wasn’t the end of it.
By the end of the day on Friday, it was quite obvious that something extremely strange had just happened…
Federal Reserve liquidity facilities caught fire on Friday as month-end pressures pushed a key lending tool to a record level of usage.
The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility lent a total of $50.35 billion on Friday to eligible financial firms in two separate availabilities, the highest-ever usage since the tool was put in place in 2021 to provide fast loans collateralized with Treasury or mortgage bonds. At the same time, financial firms also parked a considerable amount of cash on Fed books, with the reverse repo facility seeing inflows of $51.8 billion.
So what is the bottom line? The bottom line is that it very much smells like a major crisis is brewing.
But let’s wait and see what happens on Monday. If we see figures on Monday that are fairly normal, perhaps we have more time before things start breaking loose in the markets.
However, if we see even larger numbers on Monday, hold on tight. In either case, the financial markets will not be able to stay disconnected from the real economy forever.
Just like in 2008 and 2009, large employers all over the United States have been conducting mass layoffs. Sadly, this time around that includes some of our largest and most prosperous employers…
The Trump administration offered buyouts to the entire federal workforce this year, aiming to reduce it by as much as 10%. Roughly 75,000 workers accepted. More recently, Amazon, UPS and Target all announced private-sector layoffs.
Buyouts can sound tempting. A five-figure severance package might be the most money a worker has ever seen in one paycheck. But it’s also the last paycheck your employer will give you.
We haven’t seen anything like this in many years.
Bankruptcies are soaring, delinquency rates are spiking, thousands of stores and restaurants are permanently shutting their doors, and just about everything just keeps getting more expensive.
What we are now facing is being described as “Depression 2.0”.
Unfortunately, this is just the beginning and most of the population understands this.
In fact, one recent survey discovered that 57 percent of Americans expect economic conditions to get even worse over the next year.
Many of you are going to be facing some very hard decisions in the coming months.
If you currently have a job that you highly value, I would recommend holding on to it as tightly as you can.
But if you feel that it is absolutely necessary to go somewhere else, you will just have to do what you have to do.
Just understand that if you leave your current position it will not be easy to find a new one at all.
In 2008 and 2009, millions of Americans lost their jobs.
Many of them didn’t have anything to fall back on, and so large numbers of them also lost their homes.
This is one of the reasons why it is so critical to have a sizable emergency fund. At this point, even the mainstream media is stressing the importance of this…
Most people live paycheck to paycheck, and when the economy crashes, that leaves no room to breathe. Having three to six months of essential expenses tucked away can make all the difference when cash flow dries up or jobs disappear overnight.
Keep your emergency savings in an easily accessible account, not tied up in volatile investments. It’s not about hoarding—it’s about buying time and peace of mind. When others panic, you’ll have the stability to make smart, calm decisions.
I expect things to start moving very quickly now.
If the problems in our banking system bubble to the surface and start becoming highly visible, it will create a lot of fear.
And it is just a matter of time before our absurdly overvalued stock market takes a dramatic tumble.
Of course all of this is happening at a time when so many other elements of “the Perfect Storm” are coming together.
We are right on the brink of multiple major wars, global food supplies are rapidly getting tighter, we are being told that the next worldwide pandemic could break out at any moment, and on average the U.S. has been getting hit by a “billion dollar disaster” about every two weeks.
I expect so much chaos to be unleashed during the weeks ahead, and that means that we should expect the turmoil that we are currently witnessing on Wall Street to escalate quite a bit more.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.