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Illegal Aliens (1)

The Great Replacement: Welfare for Illegal Aliens Ensures the Border Invasion Will Continue

by Ryan McMaken
February 23, 2024

(Mises)—Earlier this month, The New York Post reported that the mayor of New York is giving away pre-paid cash cards—each carrying “up to $10,000“— to foreign nationals in New York. Most of these foreign nationals—i.e., “illegal immigrants”—have arrived in New York with no invitation, no employment prospects, and no plan for housing. But most of them plan on staying. And why shouldn’t they? Upon arrival, thousands of them immediately went on the public dole in some way or another, relying on taxpayer-funded shelters, housing programs, and a variety of sources for “free” food. Those immigrants who have not found taxpayer funded housing in hotels—there are presently at least 66,000 of them—simply live on the taxpayer-funded streets as vagrants.

The latest idea from the city’s central planners is to pay out millions more via pre-paid debit cards—pre-paid, of course, by millions of people who actually work for a living. The city has already planned to spend at least $2.5 billion on the migrants in this way. An additional $53 million will go to grease the palms of bankers who will provide the cards.

This is just one story among many we’ve seen in recent years on how state, local, and federal policymakers have shoveled ever larger amounts of taxpayer funds to both legal and illegal immigrants. After all, there are at least 23 million foreign nationals residing in the United States—both legally and illegally—and both are subsidized by taxpayers to the tune of at least $150 billion per year. An additional $140 billion goes to immigrants who have been naturalized.

Clearly, governments across the United States are doing a lot to subsidize new immigration. It is well known by now that American cities and states—not to mention the federal government—offer “free” cash, housing, food, and more. Moreover, it is known that once the migrants get here, they can even hope for fast-tracked legal residency by claiming to be refugees. Then, once legal residency is established, it’s only a five year wait until the citizenship process can begin. At that point, one can apply for the full bevy of public benefits offered to citizens: endless access to Medicaid, food stamps, housing vouchers, and more. And, of course, these new citizens also get to vote.

Yet, most of the focus in the debate over immigration has been on the government doing too little to physically stop immigration. While Washington holds out a huge carrot to foreign nationals by handing out billions in social benefits, anti-immigration activists spend most of their time focusing on the “stick” of border control and deportation.  Occasionally, a politician might offer a half-hearted claim that “the border is not open.” The migrants, however, know what is really going on.

Unfortunately, a focus primarily on border control and deportations ignores the true root of the problem. So long as the “carrot” remains an enormous incentive, the “stick” will produce limited results.

The Carrot versus the Stick

Moreover, the anti-immigration lobby’s focus on border control and deportation is exactly how the pro-immigration activists like it, and their scheme is going according to plan. The scheme works like this: entice ever-increasing numbers of migrants to the border with ever-larger promises of social benefits. Then, once the migrants get to the border, portray any and all border control efforts as amounting to “kids in cages” or “whippings” by border patrol agents.

The full reality of the border situation is never covered in the media, of course. While the alleged “kids in cages”—or their current PR equivalent—are featured regularly in the officially approved organs of public communication, the exploited workers who pay for all this never seem to get a mention.  If the legacy media were to give a moment’s thought to who is paying for the endless “caravans” of future tax-eaters to the border, the media narrative would be different. The regime journalists would be running news stories about small business owners who are being forced to cough up ever larger sums in taxes—including, of course, the inflation tax—to pay for another 50,000 or 100,000 foreign nationals in any given month.



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If the legacy media cared about context, they’d feature stories about plumbers and waitresses whose children are now in overcrowded classrooms filled by the children of migrants who have contributed nothing to the construction or maintenance of those schools. Meanwhile, of course, the longtime taxpayers are stuck with ever larger property taxes to pay for it all. The media would note how these working people have paid taxes in that jurisdiction for many years, just to be told they’d better pay more. Ordinary working people are handed an ever-growing tax bill by the graduate-schooled elites who, for whatever reason, have become obsessed with subsidizing immigration to the fullest extent they can get away with.

In other words, the current scheme is working perfectly: draw countless new migrants to the border with taxpayer money, and when any taxpayers object, call them fascists (or worse).

Moreover, so long as the pro-immigration lobby can keep the other side fixated on the “stick” rather than the “carrot,” the anti-immigration side ends up supporting policies the regime wants. For example, consider how the anti-immigration lobby favors police-state powers in the name of controlling immigration. These measures include “real ID,” “E-Verify,” and the execrable 100-mile deep “border zone” in which any American can be stopped and his “papers” demanded. All this is sold as a way of “preventing illegal immigration.” In practice, the regime is fine with all this since these measures end up greatly expanding federal surveillance and police power.

Subsidizing Border Crossings

Many anti-immigration activists like to focus on border controls and insist that theirs is the only feasible solution. “Good luck cutting welfare to migrants!” they say. They think they’re being clever, but one could just as easily ask them: “how are those mass deportations going for you? I’m sure they’ll begin any day now.” Or we might ask: “how’s that border wall coming? Congratulations, the state of Texas managed to close a tiny portion of the border near Eagle Pass. Good luck with closing the rest of it.”

Without addressing the lure of subsidized migration, “border control” will meet with limited success. After all, if it were easy to close the border—which runs 1,900 miles through mostly remote country—the United States would not be awash in illegal drugs imported from abroad. So long as there is a pile of easy cash waiting on the American side of the border, drug dealers and migrants will find a way to get to it.

Thus, the most sustainable and enforceable policy changes lie in cutting off access to taxpayer funded largesse for the foreign born—both legal and illegal—and in making citizenship more difficult to obtain. Given that legal immigrants collect taxpayer-funded social benefits even more than illegal aliens, there is no reason to draw the line simply at illegal aliens. So long as these benefits are available to any immigrants, the benefits will act as an incentive to migrants who can’t pay their own bills. Moreover, so long as citizenship remains a means of gaining access to welfare benefits, citizenship itself must be harder to obtain. The current requirement that legal residents wait five years to apply for citizenship is hardly a meaningful obstacle. This waiting period for citizenship ought to be closer to twenty years.

Ending the migration subsidies has an added benefit in that doing so does not violate property rights or empower the state. Rather, cutting off migrant welfare restricts state power while reducing the fiscal burden on the taxpayers. “Citizenship,” of course, is not a natural right or a property right. It’s an administrative status, which in the modern world mostly exists to grant access to the public purse.

Anti-Welfare, Not Anti-Immigrant

It is important to note that none of these changes are “anti-immigrant.” These policies merely oppose the immigrants that consume taxpayer-funded benefits. Indeed, current immigration policy is far too restrictive on the self-sufficient migrants, who are an economic boon.

Many companies and entrepreneurs, for example, encounter countless difficulties in hiring desirable immigrant workers because current policies have placed low ceilings on the number of visas issued to these workers. Moreover, many employers turn to immigrant laborers because the native-born population is too busy getting high to pass a drug test and show up for work. Yet, while hard-working business owners are legally barred from hiring the skilled the workers they need, unskilled workers pour across the border and receive cash payments—funded by those who actually work.

Migrants who don’t need social benefits—of whom there are many—would benefit from policies cutting immigrants off from taxpayer funds. After all, the productive migrants end up paying to subsidize social benefits for others.  Only immigrants on the dole would suffer from being cut off. Until that happens, don’t expect the flood of subsidized migration to ease any time soon.

About the Author

Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is executive editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for the Mises Wire and Power and Market, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in public policy, finance, and international relations from the University of Colorado. He was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Breaking Away: The Case of Secession, Radical Decentralization, and Smaller Polities and Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

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Two Storms, One Harvest

Empty Shelves

Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.

What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.

Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.

This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.

Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.

Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.

The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running

While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.

The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.

Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.

The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.

Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.

The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?

The System Has No Slack Left

The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.

Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.

There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.

The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.

What Joseph Knew

Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.

Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.

Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.

Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.

None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.

Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.

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