(Advancing Time)—There are a lot of parts or plumbing in the financial system that we don’t see. It is important to note the financial system and the economy may intersect but are not the same thing. Ignoring this fact, as many people do, will come back to haunt us.
This is why AdvancingTime has pounded away at the idea that where and what we buy has a major impact on the future of both communities and countries. I just finished watching “Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart) Good news!” The Zero Hedge team put this special Thoughtful Money’s debate on the fate of the US dollar on the YouTube channel. This was a deep-dive discussion of over three hours.
This important video did nothing to change my mind about where the world is going. In short, I liked Brent Johnson’s line, “certainty is death.” He claims he is not certain about anything. The footnote under the discussion title makes it clear that Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involves risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Also, some high-risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. In short, it underlines Johnson’s uncertainty.
More than one economist, big wig CEO, and Fed watcher have admitted the problems haunting the financial system have very deep roots. These people often contend governments and central banks have not fully rectified the problems causing the great financial crisis of 2008. Instead, they have merely papered over our failures by printing money and flooding the system with liquidity.
In truth, the financial system is a rickety cobbled-together mess of poorly fitted pieces. Overall, the financial system is not a well designed machine. Instead, it is glued together in a haphazard way to get the job done. To make matters worse, this system is greased by the greed of those who benefit from stealing a little from here and there.
In the real world, things are usually not intentionally designed to be complicated but the reality is that they just are. Part of getting a clear picture of where we are headed stems from the reality this is not all about economics but politics plays a major part in our future. Recessions have always had the effect of cleansing the economy of weak noncompetitive companies to clear the way for new stronger companies. The efforts of those in charge of such things to remove recessions from the economic cycle has created a new hazard.
An excellent example of “hidden plumbing” is the Japanese carry trade. An article by Bloomberg reporter Masaki Kondo that appeared on Zerohedge on February 1st titled, “Aozora Delivers Grim Reminder Of Japan Carry-Trade Risk” details some of these issues. It details how Japanese investors as a whole have boosted their overseas investment since the BOJ expanded monetary easing in 2013. This includes Japanese banks. This puts them at risk if the cost of borrowing in yen should rise. He point out this could trigger an unwinding of Japan’s massive carry trade.
While many people have focused on the losses US banks have incurred on long-term US bonds and American Banks’ exposure to commercial real estate, little attention has been paid to Japan’s exposure to these items. Not only could Japanese banks take a hit on both these investments but Japan’s exposure to the downturn and losses in China is another area for concern. Yes, it is possible that China’s economic problems will spill over and negatively impact Japan. Still, this is an area many financial gurus claim is an opportunity for Japan to expand into and exploit, in short, they claim economic chaos in China is a plus.
We should be aware that clogs in the system could create liquidity issues and even a change in the velocity at which money moves through the financial system could cause problems. The “slowing in the velocity of money” is rooted in where it is being placed. The speed at which money flows through the economy in some ways is tied to the speculation about the future of inflation.
Behind the scenes, a lot of things are occurring that we don’t recognize as important until they are unveiled as being so. Trade deficits, reshoring of manufacturing, changes in how taxes are accessed, man made and natural disasters, and more all flow into this mix. This translates into “nobody really knows what the future holds.” The so-called, often self-proclaimed experts, included.
Another thing we should be worried about is “financial one-offs” These are one-time events that may prove unable to propel the financial system forward over the long haul. In a world void of financially nutritious content, an individual has to really go out of their way to become educated in the way to avoid ending up as financial road kill. The less you know may increase your feeling all is well but does little to ensure your financial future.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.