(The Epoch Times)—On May 7, millions of Americans will be unable to use their government-issued photo identification—usually, a driver’s license—to board a domestic flight, enter a federal government building, or visit a nuclear power plant. It’s part of a plan enacted by Congress 20 years ago that is finally coming to fruition.
“REAL ID” is a term coined by the Real ID Act of 2005. The law was passed a few years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in response to security concerns about the identities of people visiting possible terrorist targets.
Many of the 9/11 terrorists used loopholes to obtain IDs before boarding the passenger planes they hijacked and crashed into buildings.
A REAL ID is issued by a state after a more thorough check of a person’s identity. Applicants for a REAL ID must provide proof of lawful status in the United States. A REAL ID is distinguished from a regular driver’s license by the presence of either a black or gold star in the top corner of the card.
For Americans, the most important use of REAL ID will be when boarding flights. Beginning on May 7, 2025, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will accept only state IDs that are either REAL IDs or REAL ID-compliant documents. Many Americans without REAL ID, hence, will be unable to travel by air.
Here’s some more information about the plan.
Obtaining a REAL ID or Alternatives
All U.S. citizens eligible for state ID cards are also eligible for REAL ID. Foreign nationals, by contrast, may be eligible for REAL ID, subject to the type of immigration status they hold in the United States.
The application process for REAL ID varies from state to state. However, applicants usually must go to a state’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) office or the equivalent, akin to applying for a driver’s license. Ahead of the May 7 deadline, some state DMV offices have special REAL ID appointments to help convert existing IDs to REAL IDs.
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Applying for a REAL ID requires proof of U.S. citizenship (e.g., a birth certificate, naturalization/citizenship certificate, an unexpired passport, passport card, or consular report of birth abroad).
Foreign nationals will likely need to provide their passports and evidence of lawful status in the United States, such as a permanent resident card (i.e., a “green card”), visa sticker in their passport, or other documentation issued by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) such as an I-94 Record of Admission or I-797A Notice of Approval.
The length of a REAL ID’s validity for a foreign national may be limited by the length of authorized stay in the United States, requiring more frequent reapplication. Tourists visiting on B-1/B-2 status are ineligible for REAL ID.
Additionally, everyone applying for a REAL ID will need to present an original Social Security card issued by the Social Security Administration (SSA), or alternative documents that show their Social Security Number (e.g., a W-2 form). Moreover, they will need to provide at least two proofs of an address in that state or jurisdiction. Acceptable proofs may vary from state to state.
As aforementioned, most REAL IDs will be driver’s licenses or state-issued ID cards for non-drivers. Because of the citizenship verification requirements, REAL IDs will likely cost more to obtain than regular driver’s licenses or state IDs. Non-REAL IDs may still be issued by states and recognized by them, but will be invalid for federal purposes after May 7, and likely contain a notation reading “Not Valid for Federal Purposes” on the plastic card.
If someone does not have a REAL ID, or does not wish to obtain it, there are other acceptable forms of identification they may use to board domestic flights. These are known as “REAL ID-compliant” documents. They include unexpired U.S. passports and passport cards, enhanced driver’s licenses issued by some states, foreign passports, Trusted Traveler Program cards (e.g., Global Entry), and Tribal Nation ID cards, among others.
REAL ID cannot solely be used to fly internationally; a passport booklet will still be required.
It’s unclear whether mobile driver’s licenses, which are digital certificates downloadable onto the Apple Wallet and Google Wallet programs, will be accepted for REAL ID purposes.
Some states, such as Georgia and California, allow people to download mobile licenses in addition to their physical cards and use them interchangeably. As of November 2024, states can seek waivers to have their mobile driver’s licenses recognized for REAL ID purposes, though DHS has not yet published the list of states granted waivers, if any.
Illegal Immigrants
Beyond bureaucracy and higher fees, U.S. citizens and lawfully present foreign nationals are likely to face minimal difficulties with the REAL ID program. Most illegal immigrants, by contrast, will not be eligible for the program.
Any foreign national who entered the U.S. without inspection, or who was lawfully admitted but remained beyond the expiry of their stay (without applying for a new status or seeking asylum), will not be able to obtain REAL ID, which requires proof of valid lawful status. Without REAL ID, these persons will be unable to fly in the domestic U.S. or enter federal facilities.
Many states, particularly those led by the Democratic Party or progressive politicians, issue identification documents to illegal immigrants that are nearly indistinguishable from those issued to U.S. citizens. REAL ID, however, will create some distinction between them, which could be the basis for immigration enforcement actions.
As a result, many states will continue to issue IDs that are “Not Valid for Federal Purposes,” which illegal immigrants and U.S. citizens alike may obtain for daily use. Additionally, some municipalities, such as New York City, now issue ID cards to all persons regardless of their lawful status in the country.
However, there are two exceptions.
Recipients of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program are classes of illegal immigrants who are specifically eligible for REAL ID. Section 202 of the Real ID Act specifically allows for REAL IDs for persons with “approved deferred action,” which DHS has confirmed will apply after May 7. However, should a person’s TPS or DACA status be terminated, their REAL ID may likewise become invalid, rendering them ineligible.
Domestic Opposition
The Real ID Act initially required all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and five territories to comply with federal requirements by May 11, 2008. However, opposition from states delayed implementation. Many did not wish to harmonize their ID processes with the program, seeing it as an additional burden.
Eventually, most complied and, by 2014, REAL ID enforcement was phased in incrementally at some federal facilities. Still, processing delays and the unwillingness of many Americans to change their IDs led the federal government to extend the deadline multiple times, with three extensions during the COVID-19 pandemic alone.
The Trump administration has decided to implement the program in full on the May 7 deadline, which accords with its policy goal of removing illegal immigrants from the United States and excluding them from domestic benefits.
“REAL ID is coming… and so is your existential crisis…You know that flimsy driver’s license you’ve been carrying? You’re going to need to upgrade it to a REAL ID by May 7,” wrote the TSA on X.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has announced her commitment to the program.
“These IDs keep our country safe because they help prevent fraud and enhance security. Please do your part to protect our country,” Noem said in a video message about the REAL ID program posted on X.
Some libertarian politicians, including Republicans, who oppose what they call “government overreach,” have voiced opposition to the REAL ID program, citing the risk of government surveillance of Americans.
“Real ID isn’t needed and won’t stop terrorists from hijacking planes,” wrote Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) in a statement on X.
“Most of the 9/11 hijackers held Saudi, UAE, Egyptian, or Lebanese passports. Real ID is a national standard and database of IDs that is primarily a tool for control of Americans. Trump shouldn’t enforce it,” he added.
Others, such as airport authorities, warn that the inconvenience of obtaining a REAL ID and non-compliance will lead to travel delays, long lines, and angry passengers at airports.
“Avoid last-minute travel chaos — REAL ID deadline goes into effect May 7,” wrote the San Diego International Airport authority on X.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.