(The Epoch Times)—Today, the nation, and world, will be watching what happens in Iowa, former President Donald Trump told his supporters at several recent rallies here.
While the former president and his team are hoping for a historically high margin of victory, temperatures are predicted to plummet to extreme lows. The National Weather Service issued a warning that wind chills could register as low as -40 degrees in central Iowa.
Following an eventful two-week “blitz” of Iowa, the former president is riding high on a wave of new endorsements, the largest campaign event of the pre-caucus weekend, and historically high rankings in opinion polls.
The pivotal Iowa caucuses come just five days after former New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s exit from the race. He was drawing about 4 percent of voters in Iowa and said he saw no path to victory beyond Iowa.
His departure leaves President Trump to duke it out with the remaining trio of Republican rivals: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, and Ohio businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
All four of those presidential hopefuls had scheduled numerous campaign events. But life-threatening weather conditions–subzero temperatures, gale-force winds, and snow-swept, impassable roadways–disrupted plans and prompted cancellations. The candidates replaced some in-person events with online livestream appearances.
Revved and Ready
Months of groundwork–door-knocking, phone-calling, and leafleting–preceded the last-minute pushes.
By all accounts, President Trump’s campaign organization is much stronger and more well-developed now than it was in 2016. Then-candidate Donald Trump was a political newcomer and lacked much campaign structure.
Iowa Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, a Trump adviser, told The Epoch Times that, at last check, volunteers had collected 50,000 “commit-to-caucus” cards from voters.
The team also had lined up about 2,000 caucus captains, more than one for each of Iowa’s precincts, Mr. Kaufmann said. He and other members of President Trump’s team have expressed confidence that those efforts will pay off with a victory.
But President Trump has been counting on a big win to send a big message.
As he has acknowledged, the margin of victory in Iowa sets the stage for primary elections in other states, for the Republican nomination, and also for the crucial 2024 presidential election.
Virtually every poll shows President Trump outpacing his Republican rivals by historic proportions–nationally and in Iowa. That’s a seemingly enviable position but it’s also fraught with danger.
If his supporters assume victory is “in the bag,” they might feel their votes are unnecessary, potentially diminishing his vote totals.
To combat that possibility, the former president and his allies have warned Iowans: Every vote matters, no matter what the polls say.
He also posted on Truth Social that Iowans should “be on the lookout for dirty tricks,” adding, “The Iowa Caucus is 100 percent ‘on’ for Monday night, January 15th. It will not be canceled or postponed under any circumstances … and you cannot be late!”
In Iowa polling, the former president holds almost a 34 percent lead over his nearest competitor, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
He was drawing 52 percent support, with Ms. Haley in a distant second at 18 percent. Following her were Mr. DeSantis with 16 percent and Mr. Ramaswamy at 7 percent.
If President Trump’s Caucus Night vote totals fall short of the expectations reflected in polls, his opponents will cite that as evidence that his candidacy isn’t as strong as it purports to be.
‘Political Miracle’
Mark Serrano, a 2020 Trump campaign adviser, anticipates how his critics will react.
“Before the first ballot has been cast, the media have already written their headlines for the Iowa caucuses: ‘Trump underperforms in Iowa,’” Mr. Serrano wrote in a Jan. 13 column for The Washington Times.
After Iowa gained status as the first-in-nation caucus for Republicans in 1976, the largest previous margin of victory in a competitive presidential caucus was 12 percent. That happened in 1988 when Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas beat televangelist Pat Robertson. Through the years, many other candidates won by margins of 3 percent or less.
Based on that context, if President Trump wins this year’s Iowa contest by at least 12 percent, he deserves accolades, Mr. Serrano said.
Especially because he overcame “every imaginable barrier, including unprecedented persecution weaponized by his chief opponent,” Mr. Serrano wrote. President Trump faces 91 criminal charges plus a series of civil cases targeting his family fortune.
“He has pulled off a political miracle,” Mr. Serrano wrote. “This is the real story. But it’s not the story you’ll read in the papers or hear from the pundits” after Caucus Night is over.
As Trump adviser Chris LaCivita told The Epoch Times and other media on Jan. 10: “A win is a win. But anything over 12 [percent margin] I think is a great night.”
Counting on ‘Hardy’ Iowans
On Sunday, President Trump ended his pitch to the Hawkeye State on a positive note.
His rally at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, attracted the biggest crowd of the pre-caucus weekend. A city fire official told The Epoch Times that 800 to 900 people filled a main room and an overflow room; enduring temperatures of -17 degrees to attend.
President Trump said he viewed that attendance as a sign that Iowans are “hardy” and would show up for Caucus Night when temperatures are predicted to be even colder.
He wore a white Trump Caucus Captain hat, symbolizing the importance of Caucus Night. During his 100-minute speech, he summed up reasons voters should choose him on their ballots.
President Trump touted successes during his first presidential term, including strengthening the economy, tightening the U.S. border, and improving foreign relations.
He outlined his platform for a second Trump administration, with his priorities including reversing President Biden’s ‘green’ energy policies, clamping down on illegal immigration, and neutralizing the political ‘weaponization’ of federal agencies against citizens.
‘Not Tough Enough?’
The former president sharpened his attacks on both Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis, pointing out that polls showed he is beating them in the states where they live. He implied that, if they can’t win in their home states, their candidacies are weak.
When Ms. Haley served as the United Nations ambassador during his administration, she “did a good job but she’s not right to be president … she’s not tough enough,” President Trump said. He cast Mr. DeSantis in a similar light. He also characterized them as disloyal people who cannot be trusted.
That followed his first-ever social media attack on Mr. Ramaswamy, who has positioned himself as a Trump-like candidate. In a Jan. 13 Truth Social post, President Trump couched Mr. Ramaswamy as disingenuous and accused him of “deceitful campaign tricks.”
But during his speech on Sunday, President Trump made no mention of Mr. Ramaswamy, who has made nearly 400 campaign stops in Iowa and gained a lot of respect for that effort, several Iowa voters told The Epoch Times.
Indianola rally attendee Terra Krachenfels, 46, told The Epoch Times that President Trump’s speech on Sunday effectively neutralized all the other candidates.
“His message was: Everybody else is done,” she said, adding that the enthusiasm and the crowd were “amazing,” despite a couple of hecklers who railed against President Trump’s wealth before security officers escorted them out of the venue.
Backers Come Forward
In another development on Sunday, President Trump added to the feathers in his cap with several endorsements.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) announced they were supporting him. As a result, he has now won endorsements from more than half the Republicans in Congress.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who withdrew from the presidential race last month, joined the former president onstage in Indianola to announce his endorsement of him.
“Heartland states,” such as North Dakota and Iowa “were respected” under President Trump’s administration, Mr. Burgum said. “He cut red tape like no president has done before,” helping those states to improve economically.
The governor also declared: “Under President Trump, America was safe and prosperous.”
This marks the third time Mr. Burgum has endorsed the man who served as the 45th president and is now aiming to become the 47th. Some political insiders have insisted that Mr. Burgum could be a long-shot potential vice president pick for President Trump.
Colorado Sets Course
Capping off the night: Around 9 p.m. Eastern, the Colorado Republican Party announced that it had voted to endorse President Trump by a 65-percent margin.
That decision is particularly significant because that state’s Supreme Court had voted to remove President Trump from the 2024 primary ballot.
The court ruled that he had incited his supporters to wage an “insurrection” on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, amid an election fraud protest.
In response, the Colorado GOP challenged that decision, and the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to consider the case.
“On the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, the Colorado Republican Party wanted to give President Donald J. Trump a big send-off by enthusiastically endorsing him for President in November,” said Colorado Rep. Dave Williams, state Republican Party chairman, in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
“At the end of the day, Americans know Joe Biden is off his rocker and doesn’t have a clue how to address the needs of this country,” the chairman said. “The Colorado Republican Party is more than happy to stand with President Trump because he risked it all to stand for this country.”
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.