The mainstream media is trying really hard to convince all of us that inflation will soon no longer be a problem, but meanwhile food prices continue to soar to absolutely absurd levels. In fact, we just learned that vegetable prices increased by a whopping 38 percent in November. When I originally saw that number, I thought that it must represent the change from 12 months ago. But that is not the case. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, vegetable prices jumped 38.1 percent from October to November, and they are up a total of 80.6 percent over the past 12 months…
The price of vegetables from producers shot up 38% on a monthly basis in November — and jumped over 80% compared to November 2021 — according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics latest Producer Price Index.
Even after reading that, a lot of you are still going to have a very difficult time believing that these figures are actually real.
So I would encourage you to go to the official BLS website and see the numbers for yourself.
This isn’t an Internet rumor. This is real. As you can see from this chart, egg prices are also going completely nuts. The price of eggs shot up 26 percent last month. And over the past 12 months the price of eggs is up an astounding 244 percent.
The bird flu is the primary reason why eggs have become so expensive. More than 50 million chickens and turkeys in the United States are already dead, and it is likely that millions more will die in the months ahead.
As for vegetables, the endless drought in the western half of the nation has absolutely crippled production. In fact, one recent survey discovered that 74 percent of farmers in 15 western states “saw a reduction in harvests” in 2022…
A recent survey about the drought by the American Farm Bureau Federation of more than 650 farmers in 15 Western states found that 74 percent saw a reduction in harvests and 42 percent switched crops.
No matter how high the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, food prices are going to continue to go up.
We all have to eat, and it appears that food supplies will get even tighter in 2023…
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U.S. domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to remain snug into 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency is forecasting U.S. corn supplies to fall to a decade low before the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat ending stocks are forecast at the lowest in 15 years.
I am particularly concerned about the outlook for wheat.
The two largest wheat exporters in the world are projected to have very disappointing harvests in the months ahead, and this should deeply alarm all of us…
While flooding in Australia, the world’s second largest wheat exporter, in recent weeks has caused extensive damage to the crop which was ready for harvest, a severe drought is expected shrink Argentina’s wheat crop by almost 40%.
This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.
A lack of rainfall in the U.S. Plains, where the winter crop ratings are running at the lowest since 2012, could dent supplies for the second half of the year.
So what does all of this mean?
The bottom line is that the global food crisis that erupted in 2022 is likely to intensify quite a bit more in 2023.
Food prices have already risen to very painful levels, and those that are being hit the hardest are those that live in the poorest countries…
With food prices climbing to record peaks this year, millions of people are suffering across the world, especially poorer nations in Africa and Asia already facing hunger and malnutrition.
Food imports costs are already on course to hit a near $2 trillion record in 2022, forcing poor countries to cut consumption.
Every single day, more precious people are dropping dead from starvation.
Things are particularly bad in nations in eastern Africa such as Somalia…
More than 200,000 Somalis are suffering catastrophic food shortages and many are dying of hunger, with that number set to rise to over 700,000 next year, according to an analysis by an alliance of U.N. agencies and aid groups.
But most Americans don’t even know that this is happening because they don’t see images of people suffering and dying on the nightly news.
If the mainstream media is not making a big deal out of this crisis, it must not be important. Right?
Here in the United States, our politicians are trying to paper over our impending problems by borrowing and spending colossal mountains of money.
The national debt just crossed the 31 trillion dollar threshold, and the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the budget deficit for the month of November alone was a staggering 249 billion dollars…
The monthly federal deficit was a record-setting $249 billion in November, $57 billion wider than the same month last year, as Republican control of the House puts the government’s finances back in the political spotlight.
As the Fed raises interest rates, it is also raising our borrowing costs. So the Fed can only go so far, because if they push rates too high it will literally collapse the finances of the federal government.
What this means is that the Fed is almost out of ammunition in their war against inflation. And our politicians in Washington are ensuring that more inflation is on the way by borrowing and spending money at a pace that we have never seen before.
Meanwhile, the bird flu plague, endless droughts and bitterly disappointing harvests all over the planet will continue to suppress global food production.
What all of this means is that food prices are going to go a lot higher than they are now, and many of the famines that we are already witnessing all over the world will become quite serious. Even though food prices are ridiculously high right now, I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.
Things are only going to get crazier in 2023, and most people will find themselves completely unprepared as conditions deteriorate all around them.
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Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.