(Visual Capitalist)—For much of the last year, recession fears have been building against a sharp rise in interest rates and market uncertainty.
Only recently has there been a shift in sentiment. Given the resilience of the U.S. economy, a growing amount of investors are seeing an increasing likelihood of a soft landing—where the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation without triggering a recession. However, many still remain cautious.
This graphic shows U.S. economic forecasts across Wall Street, Main Street, and C-Suite for 2024.
The Probability of a Recession in 2024
In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp departure from earlier projections.
While the Fed staff continue to share a brighter outlook, the yield curve spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates suggests there is a 61% change of a recession in the 12 months ahead. Historically, the yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions, based on a New York Fed model which uses data from 1959-2009.
Meanwhile, a survey of economists by Wolters Kluwer shows that they’re split, with 48% calling for a recession over the next 12 months.
Across Main Street, consumers share a more cautious sentiment, with over 69% saying that a recession is likely in the next year, based on a Conference Board survey.
Yet corners of America’s C-suite have grown more positive. Goldman Sachs recently dropped its recession forecast to a 15% likelihood while Bank of America gives it a 35-40% odds. On the other hand, 84% of CEOs are preparing for a recession in the next 12-18 months, a drop from 92% seen in the second quarter of 2023.
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Bull Case vs. Bear Case Signals
Among the key factors investors are closely watching center around the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
For the bull case, higher rates appear as though they haven’t significantly impacted consumer spending yet, although spending has slowed on non-essential items. Retail sales continue to be solid, and earnings across Home Depot, Walmart, Lowe’s, and other major retailers show resilience. Where the main changes are occurring are with consumers purchasing more affordable options.
However, consumers are relying increasingly on borrowing for spending.
For the bear case scenario, household debt has hit record highs of $17 trillion in March, rising 19% year-over-year. Higher rates have led these borrowing costs to jump, likely affecting household budgets. Meanwhile, corporate defaults have accelerated in 2023, and are projected to keep rising.
Overall, there are mixed signals across the wider economy, and it’s unclear if the country will experience or avoid a recession in 2024. Quantifying the full effects of higher interest rates on consumers and businesses remains an open question.
What do you think? Leave your comments at the Economic Collapse Substack.
For Emergency Preparedness, Don’t Forget the Meds
Being prepared is more than just a good idea—it’s essential. We stock up on non-perishable food, bottled water, flashlights, and first-aid supplies, but one critical aspect often gets overlooked: access to vital medications. What happens if pharmacies close, prescriptions can’t be filled, or you’re cut off from medical care during an emergency?
That’s where Jase Medical steps in, offering a reliable solution to ensure you and your family have the medications you need when it matters most.
Jase Medical specializes in emergency preparedness kits designed to provide peace of mind through physician-reviewed, prescription medications delivered right to your door. Their flagship product, the Jase Case, is a comprehensive emergency antibiotic and medication kit priced at $289.95.
This kit includes 10 essential medications—five life-saving antibiotics and five symptom relief meds—that can treat over 50 common infections and illnesses, from urinary tract infections and pneumonia to skin infections and traveler’s diarrhea. With 28 add-on options available, you can customize the kit to fit your specific needs, including a KidCase for children ages 2-11.
The process is straightforward and hassle-free. Simply visit Patriot.tv/meds, complete an online evaluation, and have your order reviewed by a board-certified physician. Once approved, the medications are shipped discreetly from a licensed pharmacy to your U.S. address (with plans for Canada shipping coming soon). Each kit comes with detailed Med Cards outlining symptoms, dosing, and usage, making it easy to administer even in high-stress situations. These medications are shelf-stable and designed for long-term storage, empowering you to handle medical emergencies without relying on external help.
For those on the move, Jase Medical also offers the Jase Go kit for $129.95, a compact travel med kit covering over 30 common conditions encountered during adventures or trips. And for ongoing needs, Jase Daily provides an extended supply of your prescribed chronic medications to safeguard against disruptions in supply chains or extreme weather events.
Don’t just take our word for it—thousands of satisfied customers have given Jase Medical a 4.9-star rating, praising its role in true preparedness. As radio host Glenn Beck warns, “The supply lines for antibiotics already are stressed to the max. Please have some antibiotics on hand… You can do it through Jase.”
Whether you’re prepping for a hurricane, a power outage, or simply the uncertainties of daily life, Jase Medical ensures you’re not caught off guard. Head to patriot.tv/meds today to customize and order your emergency kit—because when it comes to your health and safety, it’s better to be prepared than sorry.