Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan one of his most important foreign policy goals. If he was actually able to pull it off, he would be a national hero in China. But there is a huge problem standing in his way. The moment that China invades Taiwan, a war with the United States will begin.
Xi Jinping understands this very well, and so if an invasion of Taiwan is going to happen it must take place at a moment that is favorable to the Chinese. Many would argue that we will be in such a window of opportunity for about the next year and a half. Right now, the U.S. and other western nations are pouring vast amounts of military resources into the conflict in Ukraine. As a result, they are ill-prepared to militarily confront a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In addition, Xi Jinping knows that Joe Biden would not use nuclear weapons if the Chinese move against Taiwan. It would be a conventional war, and such a scenario would greatly favor China. But if the Chinese wait until after the next presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump or another Republican could be in the White House, and the risk of sparking a nuclear conflict would go up substantially.
So if Xi Jinping wants to make a move, the clock is ticking.
And over the past few weeks, he has made statements that certainly suggest that he intends to get China prepared for a coming war with the United States. The following comes from the Wall Street Journal…
At a top-level meeting focused on national security on May 30, the Chinese leader said, “We must be prepared for worst-case and extreme scenarios, and be ready to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms.”
A week later, Xi extended that concept to the economic arena. While inspecting an industrial park in Inner Mongolia, Xi said efforts to build up the domestic market are aimed at “ensuring normal operation of the national economy under extreme circumstances.”
The foreign policy experts that the Journal interviewed for their story clearly understood that Xi was referring to war.
And the only reason the Chinese would be fighting a major war any time soon is if they launch an invasion of Taiwan.
Over the past week, China has continued to send large numbers of military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense zone…
Taiwan’s air force scrambled into action on Sunday after spotting 10 Chinese warplanes crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait, as the island’s defence ministry said four Chinese warships also carried out combat patrols.
This is the second time in less than a week that Taiwan has reported renewed Chinese military activity, after 37 Chinese military aircraft on Thursday flew into the island’s air defence zone, some of which then flew into the western Pacific.
They are probing Taiwan’s defenses.
The are looking for weak spots and they are testing to see how the Taiwanese would respond to certain scenarios.
But every time the Chinese send planes and ships toward Taiwan, it will only make tensions in the region even worse.
Of course the U.S. has certainly not helped matters by sending more troops to the island…
In February, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said American and Taiwan military forces will cooperate “even more closely” and plan to “bolster military exchanges.”
At the time, CNN reported that between 20 and 40 American Marines were routinely based on the island, largely for security operations around America’s unofficial diplomatic outpost.
In April, the Taiwan News reported that America had increased its presence to about 200 troops, according to The Defense Post.
We are repeating the same pattern that we witnessed just before the Russians invaded Ukraine.
The Biden administration just keeps taking steps to aggravate China, and the Chinese just keep taking steps to aggravate the Biden administration.
If we aren’t very careful, at some point the Chinese will be pushed over the edge.
Are we almost there now?
A major British news source is telling us that the Biden administration has actually been developing plans for “the evacuation of Americans living in Taiwan”…
The US government is reported to be currently organising the evacuation of Americans living in Taiwan. According to themessanger.com, a senior US intelligence person who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to disclose the strategy, reported this evacuation planning has been ongoing for at least six months and has significantly increased over the last few months.
If an evacuation happens, that will be a very clear sign that war is imminent.
So let us hope that an evacuation does not happen any time soon.
If a war with China does erupt, many Americans will assume that the U.S. will win.
But the truth is that literally dozens of war games that our leaders have conducted in recent years have all shown that we would lose such a conflict, and that includes a war game that was just held in April…
The war began in the early morning hours with a massive bombardment — China’s version of “shock and awe.” Chinese planes and rockets swiftly destroyed most of Taiwan’s navy and air force as the People’s Liberation army and navy mounted a massive amphibious assault across the 100-mile Taiwan Strait. Having taken seriously President Joe Biden’s pledge to defend the island, Beijing also struck pre-emptively at U.S. and allied air bases and ships in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. managed to even the odds for a time by deploying more sophisticated submarines as well as B-21 and B-2 stealth bombers to get inside China’s air defense zones, but Washington ran out of key munitions in a matter of days and saw its network access severed. The United States and its main ally, Japan, lost thousands of servicemembers, dozens of ships, and hundreds of aircraft. Taiwan’s economy was devastated. And as a protracted siege ensued, the U.S. was much slower to rebuild, taking years to replace ships as it reckoned with how shriveled its industrial base had become compared to China’s.
The Chinese “just ran rings around us,” said former Joint Chiefs Vice Chair Gen. John Hyten in one after-action report. “They knew exactly what we were going to do before we did it.”
Once China invades Taiwan, we will be at war with the Chinese.
As long as the war doesn’t go nuclear, the Chinese know that they would have the advantage.
And our leaders know that the Chinese would have the advantage.
But Joe Biden is not going to start lobbing nukes at the Chinese mainland in order to keep them out of Taiwan.
That just isn’t going to happen. So there is a window of opportunity for Chinese President Xi Jinping to do something that he desperately wants to do.
Until the next presidential election in the United States he has a chance to grab Taiwan, but for all of our sakes let us hope that he chooses not to go that route.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Article cross-posted from End of the American Dream.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.