(Substack)—Even if only some of what Zelensky is worried about comes to pass, especially reduced US aid and forthcoming American pressure upon Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands, then the conflict might end sooner than expected.
Zelensky fired off over a dozen paragraphs in his latest tweetstorm on Saturday afternoon that can be read in full here. He demanded the imposition of more sanctions against Russia’s banking and energy sectors, complained about the “warm” tone of the US-Russian dialogue, expressed worries about reduced aid, fearmongered about Russia’s military-industrial complex, and pushed back against claims that he’s oppressing Russians, Russian speakers, and Russian Orthodox Christians. He’s clearly panicking.
In the order that he made his points, the first one about sanctions alludes to the proposed bill to impose 500% tariffs on Russia’s energy clients, which would likely be applied towards China and India if passes with waivers for EU countries (and probably only those that meet Trump’s defense spending demands). Politico warned that this could backfire against the US, however, while the Treasury Secretary warned that it could undermine diplomatic efforts. It’s thus little wonder that Zelensky is panicking about this.
Moving along, Zelensky’s complaints about the “warm” tone of the US-Russian dialogue are a direct response to the Trump-Putin bonhomie, the latest manifestation of which saw Putin calling Trump on Saturday to wish him happy birthday alongside discussing the latest phase of the Israeli-Iranian War. It’s still anyone’s guess whether Trump will disengage from NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine or double down on it, but judging by Zelensky’s tweetstorm, he’s taking the first possibility very seriously.
This observation leads to the third point that he made about reduced US aid, which follows the Secretary of Defense recently announcing such cuts in the next budget but without detailing how much they’ll be. While it’s possible to drastically scale up aid even in those conditions if the decision is made as proven by how much unplanned support the Biden Administration gave Ukraine in 2022, from Zelensky’s perspective, the writing on the wall is that Trump is presently disinterested in doing this.
His fourth point is the least disputable of the five since even the New York Times admitted as far back as September 2023 that Russia is far ahead of NATO in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”. As could have been expected, Zelensky also fearmongered about Russia’s intentions by implying that it might be plotting to invade NATO, but mostly everyone is numb to that narrative by now. It therefore probably won’t be enough to convince the West, especially the US, to resume 2023-like levels of aid.
And finally, the last point that he made in response to Russia’s fact-based accusations that Ukraine is oppressing Russians, Russian speakers, and Russian Orthodox Christians is purely rhetorical and doesn’t even attempt to respond to the substance of these claims, which exposes it as hollow and him as guilty. He’s panicking because he fears that the US might coerce Ukraine into changing its domestic policies as part of Russia’s denazification demand for peace if Trump truly wants to wash his hands of this conflict.
Altogether, his tweetstorm says a lot about Ukraine’s increasingly difficult position if one reads between the lines, with this being brought about by Russia’s arrival in Dnipropetrovsk. Even if only some of what Zelensky is worried about comes to pass, especially reduced US aid and forthcoming American pressure upon Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands, then the conflict might end sooner than expected. To be sure, this can’t be taken for granted, but it’s realistic enough of a scenario to make Zelensky panic.
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